Thursday, June 4, 2026 — Futures Morning Peak Top headlines 1) Trump said a U.S. maritime blockade of Iran could run through Labor Day, Sept. 7. 2) Trump said he is working toward an agreement with Iran, which he said has agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons. 3) China Cotton Association: Most cotton regions are expected to see above-normal temperatures in June; some areas may face episodic heat stress and agricultural drought. 4) As of the morning of June 3, 59 coal mines in Shanxi had resumed operations, with combined capacity of 77.65 million tons. 5) China Iron and Steel Association: Social inventory of steel products is 9.39 million tons, down 150,000 tons, or 1.6%. 6) SPPOMA: Malaysia's palm oil output fell 10.07% month over month for May 1–31. 7) Silicon Industry Branch: China's domestic polysilicon output is expected to rise to 90,000–91,000 metric tons in June. 8) The U.S. House of Representatives passed a resolution seeking to limit Trump's power to use military force against Iran. 9) Iranian media said Tehran has outlined a four-phase roadmap for an agreement with the United States. Macro and policy • Trump said in an interview aired June 3 that the U.S. maritime blockade of Iran could last until Sept. 7. • In a podcast interview, Trump said negotiations are aimed at reaching a deal and that Iran has agreed not to possess nuclear weapons. He said Iran's Supreme Leader is backing the talks. • Xinhua Finance reported the PBOC has been scaling back reverse repo operations since early June, with operations reduced to zero on Wednesday. A similar zero-operation day occurred on Aug. 7, 2024, largely reflecting weak funding demand from financial institutions. • RatingDog: China's services PMI rose to 54.4 in May 2026 from 52.6 in April, the 41st straight month in expansion and the fastest pace in three months. • ADP: U.S. private payrolls increased by 122,000 in May, the biggest gain since January last year. The report suggested momentum in hiring even as energy costs have risen amid the Iran conflict. • Mehr News Agency: A draft bill on management of the Strait of Hormuz has entered review by Iran's Supreme National Security Council and will be submitted to parliament for debate and a vote after final opinions are formed. • New York Fed President John Williams said higher energy prices are lifting costs and inflation, with inflation expected to peak in coming months. He described current policy as "just right" and said he sees no need for rate hikes or cuts; upside inflation risks have increased. • Fars News said Iran's four-phase plan begins with a full halt to military operations across all fronts involving Iran, the United States and the "Resistance Axis." Phase two focuses on measures tied to four issues: the Strait of Hormuz and related mechanisms, lifting blockades, removing oil restrictions and sanctions, and unfreezing part of Iran's assets. • Asked how he defines a ceasefire, Trump said that in Iran "ceasefire" means the fighting becomes less intense, differing from ceasefires elsewhere. • The Republican-controlled House voted to halt U.S. military action against Iran, splitting with Trump on a conflict that has become increasingly unpopular at home amid rising economic burdens. The measure is largely symbolic: it still needs Senate approval and could be vetoed by Trump. Global futures moves • Crude: Front-month WTI settled up 2.6% at $96.20/bbl; front-month Brent rose 1.45% to $97.39/bbl. Fresh U.S.-Iran strikes and stalled diplomacy raised doubts about the resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. A multi-week draw in U.S. crude inventories, with Cushing stocks nearing their lowest operational level, added support. • Precious metals: COMEX gold fell 1.27% to $4,462.70/oz; COMEX silver dropped 3.41% to $72.98/oz. Markets weighed the possibility of another Fed rate hike later this year and continued uncertainty around Iran nuclear talks. • LME base metals: Zinc -1.04% to $3,603.5/ton; lead -1.17% to $2,020.5/ton; tin -1.26% to $57,230.0/ton; aluminum -1.47% to $3,697.5/ton; copper -1.82% to $13,785.5/ton; nickel -2.22% to $18,820.0/ton. Ferrous and construction materials • Mysteel (June 3): Since May 23, 135 Shanxi coal mines have suspended production, totaling 153.7 million tons in capacity. As of the morning of June 3, 59 mines had resumed (77.65 million tons). Another 77 mines remained shut (76.05 million tons). • Hebei: Steel mills raised coke purchase prices by CNY 50–55/ton effective 00:00 June 3. Adjusted prices: First-grade wet-quenched coke (A≤12.5, S≤0.7, CSR≥65, MT≤7) at CNY 1,810/ton; first-grade dry-quenched coke (A≤12.5, S≤0.7, CSR≥65, MT≤0) at CNY 2,195/ton (top-charged). Prices are ex-works, tax-included, and payable on acceptance. • CISA: End-May social inventory of five major steel products across 21 cities totaled 9.39 million tons, down 150,000 tons (1.6%) from the prior period. Inventory is up 2.18 million tons (+30.2%) year-to-date and up 1.45 million tons (+18.3%) year over year. • Zhonggang Network: For the week ending June 3, national construction materials output was 4.7728 million tons (-0.1981 million tons w/w). Mill inventory was 4.9845 million tons (+0.0401 million tons w/w). Apparent demand was 4.7640 million tons (-0.4571 million tons w/w). Agriculture • Survey of 11 traders/growers/analysts: Palm oil inventories are expected at 2.36 million tons (+2.2% vs April). Crude palm oil output is seen down 4.5% to 1.56 million tons, the lowest May level since 2023 after two months of growth. Exports of palm oil products are projected down 4.8% to 1.24 million tons. • Mutian Technology: As of May 31, Guangxi had sold 4.4902 million tons of sugar cumulatively, down 155,100 tons year over year; the sales-to-output ratio was 58.33%, down 13.52 percentage points year over year. • China Cotton Association: June is expected to be warmer than normal in most cotton regions. Precipitation is forecast below normal in northern Xinjiang and the Yellow River cotton belt, raising the risk of periodic heat stress and agricultural drought. Southern Xinjiang and the Yangtze River cotton belt are expected to see near- to above-normal rainfall; heavy rain may cause waterlogging in some fields, weighing on seedling growth and bud formation. • SPPOMA: For May 1–31, Malaysia's palm oil yield fell 7.07% m/m; the oil extraction rate fell 0.57% m/m; total output fell 10.07% m/m. • AmSpec: Malaysia's palm oil exports for May 1–31 were 1,138,781 tons, down 15.45% from 1,346,859 tons in the same period a month earlier. • Australia Bureau of Meteorology: Rainfall in major farming regions from June to August is expected to be well below average, with above-normal temperatures. Concerns are rising over oilseed conditions; prolonged dryness could cut canola yields by 10% to 20% per acre versus last year. • Anec: Brazil's June soybean exports are forecast at 12.36 million metric tons, down from 13.79 million a year earlier. Soybean meal exports are seen at 1.65 million metric tons versus 1.67 million last year. Corn exports are projected at 485,695 metric tons versus 568,668 last year. Energy and chemicals • Longzhong Information: China's methanol inventories at ports stood at 633,500 metric tons as of June 3, down 28,500 metric tons from the previous period. Stocks have fallen for six straight weeks and are near the lowest level of the past year. • UANI said Iran struggled last month to break through the U.S. Navy blockade, leaving about 80 million barrels of oil and petrochemical products stranded behind the blockade. • Fujairah Oil Industrial Zone (UAE): For the week ending June 1, total product inventories at Fujairah port were 5.212 million barrels, down 307,000 barrels w/w. • With the Strait of Hormuz situation evolving and port inventories falling, sulfur prices have climbed. SMM said Shandong ex-factory auction prices have moved above CNY 8,000/ton, with recent trading around CNY 7,800/ton at Yangtze River ports. • EIA: For the week ending May 29, U.S. commercial crude inventories excluding the SPR fell 7.974 million barrels to 434 million barrels (-1.81%), beating expectations. It was the biggest draw since the week of Feb. 13, 2026, the sixth straight weekly decline, and the lowest level since May 2025. Metals and materials • Shanghai Futures Exchange revised its "Regulations on the Management of Non-Ferrous Metal Delivery Commodities" (May 2025 revision). Key changes include renaming "lead ingot (Pb99.994)" to "lead," and separating requirements for lead ingots versus recycled lead ingots in the appendix, adding documentation and inspection requirements for key technical and economic indicators, surface (appearance) quality and internal quality for recycled lead ingots. • Russia released gold mining output data for the first time in years. If accurate, the figures exceed independent estimates and would place Russia as the world's largest gold producer. Natural Resources Minister Alexander Kozlov told TASS ore output this year is expected at 480–500 tons; last year's output was about 480 tons. • Silicon Industry Association: Based on operating plans, the polysilicon market is expected to see rising supply and demand in June. Five companies are set to ramp up output and one to enter maintenance. Domestic polysilicon production is forecast at 9–9.1 thousand metric tons in June, with downstream wafer output also expected to increase; demand for polysilicon is estimated at about 8.7 thousand metric tons. • Philippine Statistics Authority: The Philippines exported 8.34 million wet metric tons of nickel ore in April 2026, up 52.32% m/m and 53.81% y/y, the highest monthly total since 2021. Market commentary • Rapeseed oil: Weather-driven speculation remains hard to dismiss, boosting open interest and prices. Zijin Tianfeng Futures said that in Canada, the EU and Australia, early supply-demand updates often skew toward lower yield/production, with clarity typically emerging in July or August as Canadian provinces release yield estimates ahead of the federal government. China levies an additional 4.9% tariff on Canadian rapeseed, while U.S. biodiesel policy supports Canadian rapeseed oil. That has lifted the implied floor for domestic rapeseed oil prices and the rapeseed-soybean oil spread. Caution remains warranted: a futures rally can improve crush margins and spur vessel purchases, pressuring nearby contracts; domestic consumption growth is still modest, limiting further widening of the spread. • Lithium carbonate: Everbright Futures said warehouse receipts rose by 775 tons to 55,990 tons. With delivery pressure increasing, futures prices continued to fall and near-term volatility may widen. Even with strong battery demand and a modest June supply deficit, the ongoing rise in warehouse receipts is weighing on prices. The market is watching receipt levels, along with shipment progress for Zimbabwean spodumene concentrate and the pace of production restarts at major Jiangxi mines. Today's key data and events 1) June 4: Mysteel weekly production and inventory data for five major steel products (time TBC). 2) June 4, 20:30: U.S. weekly initial jobless claims. 3) China's domestic refined oil pricing window opens for a new adjustment.