IEA flips 2026 oil demand forecast to -420,000 bpd and sees 2027 supply growth of 8 million bpd

The International Energy Agency cut its 2026 global oil demand outlook from +930,000 barrels per day at the start of the year to a contraction of about 420,000 bpd, around 1.3 million bpd below its pre-conflict projections. It also expects global supply to jump by roughly 8 million bpd in 2027, far outpacing demand growth of about 2 million bpd and adding to surplus pressure. The revision reflects the impact of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked and sustained high prices curbing transport and industrial fuel use, according to the IEA.