Technical Analysis

Bitcoin has fallen about 44% from its $126,080 all-time high, with a local bottom near $63,000 marking a 53% drawdown, yet an analyst known as Jelle on X argues this remains mild compared with earlier bear markets. Citing historical declines of roughly 84% in 2017 and 77% after the 2021 peak, as well as cycle lengths of 150–152 weeks for bull runs and 52–58 weeks for bear phases, Jelle suggests the present downturn could extend further and last until around October 2026. He also notes that a weekly RSI drop below 37 and a subsequent bullish divergence have historically signaled Bitcoin's final bear market lows, a structure he says has not yet appeared.

Bitcoin has recently driven into a key liquidity band around $73,000 and approached a major cluster near $74,000 before facing a sharp downside reaction. Price action is now rotating around prior channel resistance and a historic March 2024 weekly zone, while analysts highlight upside room on momentum indicators and discuss scenarios that could see Bitcoin advance toward the $80,000 area if buyers remain active.

Bitcoin Cash slipped into the long-term $440–$470 demand zone and briefly bounced from $470, but the broader price structure and momentum indicators remained bearish. On-chain data for 2026 showed uneven accumulation, with some mid-sized and large holders adding while other cohorts continued to sell, and the 90-day MVRV fell to its lowest level since October 2025. With the 365-day Mean Coin Age reflecting waves of distribution and capital outflows intensifying, a decisive drop in Bitcoin below $70,000 and $66,000 could put the $440 support at risk.

Over the past week, Bitcoin once again failed to break through the $74,000 resistance, even as broader financial markets remained unsettled. On March 13, on-chain data cited by analyst Axel Adler Jr showed the 30‑day average Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index sliding to 10%, a pessimism level last seen during the COVID-19 and Terra (LUNA) crashes. While BTC trades around $71,262 with a modest daily gain, historical patterns suggest such extreme fear has previously coincided with or preceded market bottoms.

According to market analyst GainMuse, Cardano is trading around $0.2605 and compressing below a long-standing descending resistance near $0.27, forming a tightening pattern that often precedes a breakout. On-chain data shows that roughly 130 million ADA has been sold or redistributed by large holders over the past week, testing bullish momentum at this key level. A clear move above $0.27 could open a path toward the $1 region, while another rejection may extend consolidation or send the price back to nearby support.

Solana’s SOL has seen its daily SuperTrend flip to a bullish signal for the first time since early January, while price consolidates around $88 within a range defined by $78.50 support and $93.26 resistance. Directional indicators, Parabolic SAR, growing buy-side order flow, and continued exchange outflows accompany this shift, as Binance’s top traders hold a notably long-biased positioning.

Solana has flashed its first bullish SuperTrend signal since early January, according to analyst Ali Martinez's March 13 X post, after months of downside that saw the token lose over 62% of its value since October 2025. SOL has traded in a $76–$90 range in recent weeks, twice pushing above $90 in March, while a potential breakout could target resistance near $103. At the same time, Solana Spot ETF net inflows for the week have dropped to $3.10 million, even as SOL trades around $88.95 with a market cap of $54.74 billion.

Strategy’s market value has dropped below the worth of its Bitcoin reserves, while unrealized losses on its holdings have reached about $3.35 billion at a Bitcoin price near $70,800. The Virginia-based firm recently completed its 102nd Bitcoin purchase, adding 17,994 BTC for roughly $1.28 billion at an average of $70,946 per coin. Chairman Michael Saylor has told investors not to expect immediate price jumps after large buys and continues to argue for a long-term holding strategy based on expectations of sustained Bitcoin appreciation.

On 13 March, Bitcoin's price moved above $72,000 before sliding back toward $70,650, with several on-chain indicators pointing to fragile demand and lingering bearish pressures. Metrics such as the Buy/Sell Pressure Delta, Korean trading flows, and velocity suggest short-term seller control and a divergence between regional sentiment and price, while large whale wallets remain largely inactive. Without a pickup in major holder activity, near-term moves may depend more on retail-driven dynamics.

Bitcoin climbed over 7% to about $70,625 in the past week while the S&P 500 fell 1.60%, as Strategy's STRC instrument raised roughly $776 million that could buy more than 11,000 BTC. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $767 million of net inflows over five consecutive trading days, but a bear flag pattern on the BTC chart implies downside risk toward $51,000.