The Trump administration plans to press Congress to permanently authorize year-round sales of E15 gasoline, a 15% ethanol blend, removing current summer restrictions. The move is intended to help lower fuel costs amid recent pressure on gasoline prices. While easing tensions with Iran has pushed oil prices down, making the change permanent would reduce support for the summer gasoline premium and give refiners more blending flexibility, adding downside pressure to spot gasoline and near-dated futures prices.

Donald Trump has privately expressed intense anxiety that Israel could draw the United States into a wider war with Iran, even as he publicly promotes a fragile understanding with Tehran. The concerns follow a 14-point memorandum of understanding between Washington and Iran that included a call for Israel to halt military operations in Lebanon. Israeli officials have publicly rejected that provision, raising worries in Washington that the arrangement could unravel and regional tensions could escalate, according to Zeteo. The report is based on unnamed advisers and officials and has not been independently confirmed.

U.S. stocks declined after Federal Reserve officials signaled they still expect one interest-rate hike this year, even as the FOMC kept the policy rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%. The median “dot plot” projection now points to a 3.8% year-end rate, up 0.4 percentage points from March, according to CNBC. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped 15 basis points to 4.205% as the S&P 500 fell 1.21%, the Nasdaq dropped 1.34%, and the Dow slid 0.97%. May inflation data showed CPI rose 4.2% year over year and core CPI increased 2.9%, both in line with expectations.

Donald Trump said at the G7 summit in France that, without a deal with Iran, global oil reserves would have been depleted within four weeks. The IEA also sharply lowered its 2026 demand outlook, now projecting a year-on-year decline of about 420,000 bpd—around 1.3 million bpd below its pre-conflict estimates. While demand looks weaker, the agency said supply growth remains relatively resilient even as geopolitical tensions continue to threaten key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.

The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% at the first FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, with a unanimous vote. The statement said the economy is expanding at a solid pace and job gains have kept up with the workforce, while inflation accelerated in May to 4.2%, a three-year high, with core CPI at 2.9% year over year. The dot plot indicated policymakers see one rate hike in 2025 and one rate cut in 2027.

The International Energy Agency cut its 2026 global oil demand outlook from +930,000 barrels per day at the start of the year to a contraction of about 420,000 bpd, around 1.3 million bpd below its pre-conflict projections. It also expects global supply to jump by roughly 8 million bpd in 2027, far outpacing demand growth of about 2 million bpd and adding to surplus pressure. The revision reflects the impact of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked and sustained high prices curbing transport and industrial fuel use, according to the IEA.

A U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding allows Iran to immediately restart oil sales and lifts restrictions on related banking, transportation and insurance services, according to The Wall Street Journal. The full text has not been released, but the agreement is set to take effect once it is signed. Trump called it a “very powerful document,” while Obama said he was doubtful it is “significantly different” from the nuclear deal reached during his administration. JD Vance said key details still need to be negotiated, though he cited reopening the Strait of Hormuz and an Iranian commitment not to pursue a nuclear weapon as major outcomes.