Geopolitics

Australia has formally implemented a digital platform news bargaining law that levies a 2.5% charge on platforms earning more than A$250mn in annual advertising revenue, whether or not they carry news. Meta, Google, TikTok and LinkedIn fall within the scope, with LinkedIn added in early August. The rate was lifted from an initial 2.25%, while deals with large publishers can be credited at 150% and agreements with small and medium-sized outlets at 200%, subject to a cap of 25% of total liability per deal.

Australia has passed the News Bargaining Incentive, imposing a 2.5% tax on advertising revenue for tech platforms that earn more than A$250 million in ad revenue in the country unless they reach paid agreements with news organisations. Deals with large publishers qualify for a 150% tax offset, while agreements with small and medium-sized outlets qualify for a 200% offset, with each single deal capped at 25% of the levy payable. The law applies to platforms including Meta, Google, TikTok and Microsoft’s LinkedIn.

Iran is considering strikes on US military targets in Europe if President Donald Trump escalates the war, with Bulgaria and Cyprus cited as potential retaliation sites. Tehran has also examined the possibility of targeting subsea fiberoptic cables in the Strait of Hormuz as regional tensions rise. In crypto markets, Bitcoin whales have resumed buying, adding about 43,000 BTC worth roughly $2.75 billion.

Bitcoin saw what was described as a coordinated short-selling move in the futures market. Against a risk-off backdrop tied to U.S.-Iran tensions and a 30% jump in crude oil prices in July, two entities executed 181 synchronized trades within 1.3 seconds. On Aug. 17, they added 585.3 BTC in short exposure at an average price of about $62,935, taking total short exposure to 2,675 BTC worth around $169 million. The operation was characterized as a planned whale attack intended to exploit macro-driven fear by creating the appearance of a short squeeze.

Petrobras said it detected hydrocarbons during exploratory drilling in the Equatorial Margin basin near the mouth of the Amazon River. The area is estimated to hold up to 10 billion barrels of oil, with a potential value of about 7200亿美元. Speaking in Oiapoque, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said he supports oil drilling in the region.

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency gave World Liberty Trust Company preliminary conditional approval on Aug. 14, 2026. The proposed trust bank plans to issue the USD1 stablecoin, manage its reserves and offer institutional digital-asset custody. Operating conditions include maintaining at least $20 million in tier 1 capital, while final approval still hinges on a preopening examination and detailed compliance requirements. Lawmakers have also raised concerns about potential conflicts of interest involving President Trump and his family.

Iran says the Strait of Hormuz has been shut down, but U.S. President Donald Trump says 9 million barrels of oil a day are still getting out. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a post on X on Tuesday that the seven-day average for oil leaving the strait was almost 9 million barrels per day. Axios reported on Sunday, citing U.S. officials, that about 8 million barrels are leaving each night via a southern lane with U.S. help, while pipeline exports run about 4 million barrels per day, putting total flows at about 15 million barrels per day versus 20 million barrels per day before the conflict.

Grain exports from Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk have been suspended after three major terminals were heavily damaged in a Ukrainian drone attack. A loading gallery at United Grain Co.’s Novorossiysk Grain Plant collapsed and several silos were damaged, while Demetra’s terminal also saw damage to its loading gallery and truck unloading facility, people familiar with the matter said. The KSK terminal was also hit. The disruption during the harvest season has raised supply concerns, helping Chicago wheat futures surge as much as 4% for the biggest intraday gain in three weeks.

Geopolitical tensions pushed oil and gold sharply higher. U.S. crude futures rose 0.89% to $83.94 a barrel and Brent gained 0.78% to $89.60, both the highest since July 31. Spot gold climbed 0.46% to $4,387.03 an ounce. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed, with MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan up 0.5% and Japan’s Nikkei flat, while Japan’s bond market came under pressure as the 5-year JGB yield hit a record 2.1% and the 2-year yield reached a 31-year high.

Iran said the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, intensifying concerns about supply disruptions and lifting Brent crude back above $88 a barrel. U.S. equities gave up earlier gains, with the S&P 500 down 0.3% and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.4%. As oil prices climbed, inflation expectations rose and markets repriced the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike to nearly 50%. Economists forecast U.S. July CPI rose 0.1% month over month after a 0.4% decline in the prior month, while a small-business hiring-plans gauge climbed to its highest level since October 2022.