Macro

Asian shares mostly fell on Monday as pressure in bond markets mounted, while oil prices also slipped. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 0.5% and South Korea’s Kospi dropped 3.5%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 2.1% and Shanghai’s Composite index lost 0.7%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.5% against the regional trend, and Taiwan’s Taiex fell 0.5%. U.S. futures edged lower as markets looked ahead to this week’s Jackson Hole gathering of global central bankers.

The Solana community has launched an on-chain governance vote to adjust its inflation schedule. The proposal would double the current disinflation rate from -15% to -30%. The change is intended to accelerate disinflation and further reduce the annual increase in new token supply. The proposal will be implemented only if it passes the decentralized vote, which is now live.

The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.3%, its highest level since 2007, prompting the Treasury Department to say it will at least double purchases of long-dated bonds from September to November. Federal debt crossed $40 trillion this week, while interest payments reached $963 billion in the first 10 months of the fiscal year—exceeding military spending and slightly topping Medicare. The dollar index fell to a three-month low and gold gained 4.7% this week after setting a record above $5,500 an ounce in January.

ANZ expects the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to lift its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.0% at its Aug. 27 meeting to rein in inflation that remains above target. While headline inflation has eased over the past three months, July inflation of 6.2% is still well above the central bank’s 3%–4% goal. The BSP has raised rates twice this year, leaving the benchmark rate at 4.75%.

The U.S. Treasury has issued more than $100 billion in tariff refunds since May, exceeding half of the total revenue collected from IEEPA tariffs over the same period. Refunds hit $21.97 billion in May, topping that month’s collections for the first time, and surged to $49.18 billion in June, pushing net customs revenue to negative $25.56 billion. Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis found tariffs lifted prices of pharmaceuticals and household utensils by more than 4%. The jump in refunds is undermining the tariffs’ fiscal payoff.

An AI investment boom among the five largest hyperscale tech companies has pushed up perceived credit risk in their bonds. Hyperscalers’ outstanding bonds maturing in 2035 now yield 5.7%, with the spread over the 10-year U.S. Treasury widening to 1.05 percentage points from 0.44 percentage points a year earlier, according to LSEG data. Credit default swap costs for Oracle and Alphabet have also risen sharply, even as U.S. Treasury yields climbed to their highest level since 2007.

U.S. stocks fell across the board on Thursday, with the S&P 500 down 0.87%, the Dow off 1.32%, and the Nasdaq lower by 0.72%. Higher crude prices stoked inflation concerns and weighed on risk appetite. Walmart slid more than 9% after weaker-than-expected second-quarter comparable store sales and full-year profit guidance below consensus, dragging on consumer names. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 4 basis points to 4.69%, and the Philadelphia Fed’s August business outlook survey jumped to a five-year high of 47.4.

U.S. stocks fell on Thursday, with the S&P 500 down 0.3% and on pace for a fourth loss in five sessions since last week’s record high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 344 points, or 0.6%, while the Nasdaq composite slid 0.8%. Bond-market pressure built again as oil prices rose, and Walmart’s decline after its latest profit report weighed on the broader market.

US stocks fell across the board as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed 4 bp to 4.69%, intensifying pressure on equity valuations. Walmart slid more than 9% after reporting weaker-than-expected comparable-store sales and issuing a profit outlook below expectations, weighing on consumer-related stocks. Economic data surprised to the upside, with the August Philadelphia Fed business outlook rising to a 5.25-year high of 47.4, highlighting resilience in manufacturing.

The US Treasury’s decision to issue more short-term debt was interpreted by markets as a signal the Federal Reserve could cut rates sooner, pushing the dollar lower. Gold rose above $2,400 an ounce and Brent crude futures climbed more than 2% to trade above $85 a barrel. Commodities broadly advanced, a move that could add to inflation pressures.