Macro

Gold prices rebounded in early Tuesday trading after slipping to a two-week low in the previous session, as investors positioned ahead of June U.S. CPI data. Traders have increased bets on a September Federal Reserve rate hike, with the implied probability rising to around 76% from 57% a week earlier. Spot gold was quoted at $4,013.93 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures added 0.4%. Oil prices climbed on escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, but rate expectations continued to dominate bullion sentiment.

Nigeria’s foreign-exchange reserves have climbed above $51bn, strengthening expectations that the naira will remain more stable. A 26.5 per cent policy rate and short-term Treasury bill yields of 16 per cent to 19 per cent have also helped draw foreign investors back toward the official FX market. Structural steps, including tighter oversight of Bureau de Change operators and progress in clearing legacy dollar payment backlogs, have reinforced market confidence. Analysts expect the naira to trade in a N1,320 to N1,420/$ range for most of the second half of the year, with faster non-oil exports potentially supporting additional gains by year-end.

India’s retail inflation rose to 4.4% in June, the highest reading under the new CPI series and above the central bank’s 4% target. Food inflation accelerated to 5.3%, driven by higher food and transport costs. Core inflation eased slightly to 3.9%, partly reflecting a pullback in gold and silver prices. Markets expect the Reserve Bank of India to keep its policy rate unchanged at its August meeting.

India’s retail inflation came in at 4.38% in June, up from 3.93% in May. Silver jewellery prices jumped 133.21% year on year and gold jewellery rose 36.82%, making them major contributors to the overall CPI. Food inflation was mixed, with tomatoes and ginger rising sharply while potatoes and peas fell. The reading remains within the Reserve Bank of India’s 2%–6% tolerance band, even as the RBI has raised its FY27 CPI inflation forecast to 5.1%.

India’s merchandise trade deficit widened to $30.43 billion in June, up nearly 59% from $19.10 billion a year earlier, as imports rose 31% to $70.84 billion and outpaced a 15.5% increase in exports to $40.41 billion. The government said the jump in imports was largely driven by higher global prices for crude oil and precious metals, rather than a proportional rise in volumes. India’s reliance on Chinese imports also increased, with imports from China rising to $38.04 billion in the first quarter of FY27.

On July 13, 2026, global financial markets sold off sharply, with more than $1.5 trillion wiped out in 10 hours. Bitcoin fell 2.47% on the day, while gold and silver also declined and major Asian equity benchmarks including South Korea’s KOSPI (-8.95%), Japan’s Nikkei, China’s SSE Composite and Taiwan’s weighted index posted notable losses. The sell-off was attributed to fresh U.S. attacks on Iran, possible Bank of Japan yen intervention and a spike in bond yields that tightened financing conditions and pressured risk appetite. The shock was described as a sudden macro hit that directly affected crypto risk pricing.

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were net buyers of $2.59 billion in the first 10 trading days of July, reversing the $24 billion of net outflows seen from March to May. Equity inflows totaled $1.6 billion, accounting for more than 61% of the overall inflow, with financials drawing the bulk of allocations. Analysts cited a steady rupee, heightened volatility in Korea and Taiwan, and improving Indian economic fundamentals as key drivers. The renewed foreign buying has provided a meaningful liquidity boost to Indian equities, particularly domestic indices and financial assets.

Philippine core inflation accelerated to 4.4% in June, the fastest pace in nearly three years, pointing to broader price pass-through from energy shocks. Analysts broadly expect the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to raise rates by another 25 basis points at its August policy meeting, with total additional tightening for the year potentially reaching 50 bps. While headline inflation has eased, sticky core inflation alongside the National Capital Region minimum wage hike, faster infrastructure spending and a possible strong El Niño are seen adding to near- to mid-term price pressures. The BSP has said it will keep a hawkish stance to anchor inflation expectations.

Maharashtra’s off-budget guaranteed liabilities totalled ₹1.81 lakh crore as of March 31, 2026, accounting for 16.4% of its estimated debt stock. The Comptroller and Auditor General criticised reliance on borrowings outside the budget, saying it understates the state’s true debt and fiscal deficit and reduces transparency. Two cooperative sugar factories controlled by politicians received government-backed loans totalling ₹139.88 crore. The state’s debt-to-GSDP ratio has moved beyond the FRBM ceiling of 25%, raising concerns over fiscal sustainability.

U.S. June CPI is due Tuesday, and the core reading is set to shape market expectations for a possible Federal Reserve rate hike in September or October. Rising geopolitical tensions involving Iran have lifted Brent crude to $76 a barrel, raising the risk that energy costs feed into broader prices. JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and other major banks are set to open the second-quarter reporting season, with S&P 500 earnings forecast to rise 23.7% year over year.