Coffee futures finished mixed on Tuesday, with ICE arabica down 1.18% and ICE robusta up 0.39%. Prices have found support from delayed harvesting in Brazil, continued lack of rain in key growing areas, and concerns that El Niño could disrupt next year’s flowering. ICE inventory levels also remain a tailwind after reaching fresh multi-year lows. Two ICE margin hikes last week reduced liquidity and amplified swings, while a surge in Vietnam’s exports weighed on robusta.

IBM sent an urgent letter to shareholders eight days before its earnings release, acknowledging a quarterly performance shortfall driven by customers reallocating capital spending toward AI hardware such as servers, storage, and memory, while cybersecurity issues also distracted clients. The disclosure has reignited analyst concerns about a “SaaSpocalypse,” with enterprise software budgets facing broader pressure as AI investment rises. The note also flagged that Palantir and ServiceNow (ONUS) could face similar headwinds.

US stocks steadied after data showed April CPI rose 3.5% year over year, below market expectations, pulling Treasury yields lower and supporting a rebound in major indexes. The S&P 500 gained 0.4%, the Nasdaq added 1.1%, and the Dow slipped 0.1%. Gasoline prices continued to climb, reflecting the impact of escalating geopolitical tensions between Iran and the United States on energy costs. IBM shares fell sharply in a separate stock-specific move that did not alter the inflation-led macro trading focus.

IBM reported preliminary second-quarter results showing revenue of roughly $17 billion, up 1% year over year but well below the $18 billion analysts expected. Adjusted earnings per share came in at nearly three dollars, also below the roughly three dollar consensus. Software and infrastructure revenue missed forecasts, consulting was essentially flat, and infrastructure revenue fell 7%. IBM said cumulative AI bookings have surpassed $12 billion, but pointed to large deals that did not close and late-quarter customer purchasing shifts as drivers of the shortfall.

U.S. cotton futures traded higher Tuesday, led by Oct 26 Cotton up 114 points to 80.97 cents/lb. USDA Crop Progress showed 22% of the crop setting bolls, in line with the 5-year average, while good/excellent ratings slipped to 44% and Texas ratings fell 7 points. ICE certified cotton stocks fell 5,842 bales to 121,258 bales. The Cotlook A Index held at 90.70 cents as the Adjusted World Price rose 92 points last week to 62.86 cents/lb.

Comex gold and silver prices rebounded. The move followed U.S. inflation data that came in below expectations, easing market concerns about further Federal Reserve rate hikes. The article focuses on intraday moves in precious metals and the macro drivers behind them, and does not cover individual stocks, crypto assets, or policy details.

IBM reported quarterly results with profit and revenue coming in well below market expectations. CEO Arvind Krishna said he did not anticipate the magnitude of customers’ capital-spending reprioritization toward AI hardware. The miss has raised concerns about how quickly IBM can adapt its business model in an AI-driven market and what that means for its longer-term competitiveness. The article does not cite any substantive price catalysts related to other traditional assets.

The US Climate Prediction Center has confirmed a strong El Niño, which is expected to bring drier conditions to West Africa and weigh on cocoa yields. Early surveys for Ivory Coast’s 2026/27 crop point to below-average cherelle formation, with output estimated at 1.8 MMT, down 18% from about 2.2 MMT in 2025/26. StoneX has sharply reduced its projected global cocoa surplus for 2026/27 to 149,000 MT. ICE cocoa inventories have climbed to a two-year high, even after prices recently rallied to multi-month peaks and have since pulled back in what is seen as a technical consolidation.