West African flooding and El Niño risks lift cocoa to 5.5-month highs

Unusually heavy rains in Ivory Coast and Ghana have flooded roads and disrupted access to farms and ports, heightening supply worries and raising brown rot disease risks for cocoa trees. Japan’s Meteorological Agency has confirmed an El Niño pattern, while NOAA puts the odds of a “Super El Niño” this year at 67%, a scenario that could worsen drought and cut output. Early cherelle surveys point to a weaker 2026/27 crop outlook even as 2025/26 port arrivals are up 18.9% year on year. The latest weather-driven supply concerns have eclipsed an otherwise bearish backdrop of elevated inventories and softer demand, including year-on-year declines in Q1 grindings in North America and Europe.