India seen importing sugar for a second straight year after output drop sends prices to record high
AI Market Summary
India, the world's second-largest sugar producer, is likely to import sugar for a second consecutive season as water stress in Maharashtra and Karnataka reduces cane irrigation and is expected to lower sugar recovery from October crushing. With domestic prices already at record highs, the prospect of sustained production shortfalls tightens global supply expectations, supporting sugar benchmarks while increasing volatility around policy responses such as stock limits and imports.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOSUGAR2USD/USDT-1.90%
AI Insight · NCCOSUGAR2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer, is expected to import sugar for a second consecutive year in 2025-26 after domestic prices surged to a record high on lower output. Prolonged rainfall shortages in Maharashtra and Karnataka, along with state decisions to prioritise reservoir water for drinking over irrigation, are set to sharply reduce sugar content in cane slated for crushing from October. The lower sugar recovery is expected to further tighten supplies and weigh on production.
