Bitcoin hits an eight-month high, then eases as ETF inflows collide with rising leverage

Bitcoin pulled back to around $85,000 after climbing to its highest level in nearly eight months, according to CoinMarketCap. The move was supported by heavy demand for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which drew roughly $1.7 billion in net inflows over two days and briefly lifted the price to $87,392. As futures positioning expanded, attention shifted to the role of leverage. With open interest in Bitcoin futures up by more than $2 billion, market participants are increasingly questioning whether the rally is becoming more dependent on borrowed money. Wojciech Kaszycki, a strategic advisor to Warsaw-listed Bitcoin treasury firm BTCS, told crypto.news that price alone is a poor measure of market health. He said investors should also track ETF flows, futures open interest and funding rates. In his view, the latest advance began with spot-led buying. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net inflows of $999 million on September 21, followed by $714.7 million on September 22 and $346.98 million on September 23, pointing to continued capital entering the space. Kaszycki said ETF subscriptions reflect cash entering funds, while futures long positions tend to be more reliant on leverage. Both can lift prices, but leveraged positioning is more vulnerable to forced liquidations when the market turns. Kaszycki added that assessing whether leverage is becoming excessive comes down to whether open-interest growth materially outpaces price gains and whether funding rates keep rising. By his estimates, Bitcoin futures open interest increased by about 7% over the past month, with an annualized funding rate near 8%. He called that constructive but not extreme, while warning that a faster buildup in leveraged positions relative to spot volume would make the market more fragile. He summarized the setup as: "spot leads, leverage follows." For the week ahead, he said the key question is not where Bitcoin trades, but whether incremental demand continues to come from ETF subscriptions or from expanded leverage. Kaszycki sees $90,000 as the next major test, both as a psychological threshold and as a gauge of spot-demand strength. He noted that some investors who bought between $90,000 and $110,000 may sell as prices revisit their cost basis. He also flagged potential profit-taking from holders who established positions around $63,000 in August. A short squeeze could add temporary upward pressure if bearish traders are forced to cover, though he said that type of buying typically fades quickly. To hold above $90,000, he argued Bitcoin likely needs sustained ETF inflows along with incremental buying from corporate treasuries or the over-the-counter market. On corporate execution, Kaszycki said companies tend to focus on financing costs and that he prefers scheduled tranche buying over frequent attempts to time short-term swings. He said BTCS typically executes larger purchases over the counter through market makers. When volatility rises, the firm reduces individual order sizes and extends execution windows rather than stopping purchases. He also said BTCS sells put options below the prevailing market price: if the options expire unexercised, the firm keeps the premium; if exercised, it buys Bitcoin at the agreed strike price. Outcomes depend on contract terms and the Bitcoin price at expiry. Kaszycki further noted that ETF subscription timing differs from futures liquidations. U.S. ETFs operate on a daily trading cycle, while crypto futures positions can be liquidated within minutes at any time. As a result, even companies that avoid leverage can see the book value of their Bitcoin holdings fall rapidly if the futures market sells off sharply.