INSEE sees French GDP growth slowing to 0.7% in 2026 as oil price spike squeezes consumers

France’s national statistics agency INSEE forecasts economic growth will ease to 0.7% in 2026 as an oil-price shock triggered by the war with Iran hits household spending. INSEE estimates the surge in oil prices will shave 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points off growth as consumers cut back and draw down savings. It expects chemicals producers and refiners to gain market share as Gulf trade disruption weighs on Middle East competitors. EU-harmonised inflation is seen rising from 2.4% in June to 3.0% by December.