U.S. retail sales rose 0.9% in May, beating expectations, with service-station sales up 26.5% year on year as gasoline prices briefly jumped to a four-year high amid the U.S.-Iran war. Although gas prices have since fallen below $4 a gallon and both sides said they agreed to a ceasefire and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the figures underscored how quickly geopolitical conflict can hit spot oil demand and prices. The episode reflected a confirmed, material supply disruption rather than an expected move or rumor, with a clear transmission path into traditional assets.

Spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,344.47 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures gained 0.2%. Investors are focused on the Federal Reserve’s 18:00 GMT rate decision, policy statement and dot plot, followed by new Chair Kevin Warsh’s first press conference. Gold recently hit a near six-month low as the Iran conflict lifted expectations for rate hikes, before rebounding after the U.S. and Iran announced a framework deal.

France’s national statistics agency INSEE forecasts economic growth will ease to 0.7% in 2026 as an oil-price shock triggered by the war with Iran hits household spending. INSEE estimates the surge in oil prices will shave 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points off growth as consumers cut back and draw down savings. It expects chemicals producers and refiners to gain market share as Gulf trade disruption weighs on Middle East competitors. EU-harmonised inflation is seen rising from 2.4% in June to 3.0% by December.

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% after its two-day meeting, while potentially removing its “easing bias” language from the policy statement. New Chair Kevin Warsh will hold his first post-meeting press conference, where he may highlight alternative inflation gauges such as the Dallas Fed’s trimmed mean PCE, signaling greater caution on rate cuts. The dollar index inched up to 99.66, while oil prices weakened on expectations tied to an interim agreement to end the Iran war.

Trump said a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding has not been finalized and warned bombing could resume, lifting geopolitical risk. The IEA cautioned the oil market could face a significant supply overhang in 2027. Brent rose 0.7% to $79.50 a barrel and WTI gained 0.6% to $76.54, both rebounding from March lows. U.S. crude inventories fell by 8.3 million barrels, according to API data.

Iron ore and nickel prices fell in early Asian trade. The most-traded iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange slipped 1.5% to 756 yuan a ton after China’s May crude steel output fell 2.7% year on year to 84.35 million tons, with weak property demand weighing on consumption. On the London Metal Exchange, three-month nickel edged down 0.2% to $17,965 a ton as ANZ analysts cited worries over volatility tied to China’s warning on Indonesia’s nickel policies and softer Chinese economic data.

特朗普称美伊谅解备忘录非最终协议，保留重启空袭可能；美联储官员Warsh首度议息在即；现货黄金跌0.03%，白银跌0.4%，油价持稳。TSX期货微跌，加股前日创历史新高。加美USMCA审查延期，乌战立场趋近G7共识。事件未引发地缘实质性升级或政策落地，对传统资产影响有限且方向模糊。

据消息人士称，中国铜冶炼厂集团正寻求扩大成员规模。该组织由国内主要铜冶炼企业组成，旨在加强行业协同，包括原料采购、产能调控及环保标准统一。目前未披露具体新增成员或时间表，但扩员动作反映行业对供应管理与价格稳定诉求增强。此举不直接改变当前供需，但强化了市场对冶炼端联合行动可能性的预期，对铜价构成边际支撑。

Russia’s crude oil production fell to 8.7 million barrels per day in May, down 5% year on year and 10% below the month’s target, as Ukraine continued striking Russian energy infrastructure, the IEA said. The agency lowered its 2024 forecast for Russian crude output by 200,000 bpd. Exports held steady, but the decline in production amounted to a tangible supply contraction. The developments directly affect oil market fundamentals as a verifiable supply-side disruption.