Swiss experts say chocolate sector has moved past the worst of the cocoa-price shock
AI Market Summary
Swiss analysts argue chocolate demand is nearing a turning point as cocoa prices have fallen about 60% from 2024 highs, though still remain roughly double historical averages. Early demand indicators improved, with global cocoa grindings and Barry Callebaut volumes rising after prolonged declines. However, El Niño risk and West Africa's dominant supply share imply continued price volatility, keeping input-cost uncertainty elevated for manufacturers.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDT+0.56%
AI Insight · NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDTAI Insight
● Neutral
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Swiss experts say the chocolate industry has moved past the most severe phase of the cocoa crisis. Cocoa prices in 2024 at times topped £10,000 per tonne and, while still about twice the historical average, have fallen 60% from their peak. Higher prices weighed on demand, with Swiss chocolate sales down 7.9% and exports down 9.3% in 2025 even as turnover rose 11.8% on price increases. In the third quarter of the 2025/26 financial year, sales volumes rose 5.7% year on year, the first increase in two years, and Lindt & Sprüngli expects growth to return in 2027.
