Analysts say China’s oil demand may never fully rebound as transport electrification erodes consumption

Several energy consultancies say China’s crude oil demand could face permanent contraction, with Rystad Energy estimating a loss of 200,000–600,000 barrels per day and Energy Aspects putting permanent losses at 300,000 barrels per day. FGE NexantECA expects China’s crude imports to drop by as much as 3.3 million barrels per day this quarter due to lower refinery run rates, the end of stockpiling and a fuel export ban that has lifted domestic supply. The report attributes the demand destruction to a structural shift toward transport electrification rather than a short-term disruption.