Tanker chartering surged after the U.S. and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding, stoking expectations that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen and prompting importers to rush for ships to lift Persian Gulf cargoes. VLCC day rates jumped from about $106,000 to nearly $470,000, with one Persian Gulf-to-India fixture priced at 897% of the MEGIndia benchmark. Some of the largest state-owned refiners in China and India have struggled to secure supertankers because freight is too expensive and safe-passage assurances through Hormuz are lacking. Higher Middle East Gulf rates are also lifting spot freight elsewhere and adding near-term support to crude prices by raising transport costs and regional spot premiums.

Several energy consultancies say China’s crude oil demand could face permanent contraction, with Rystad Energy estimating a loss of 200,000–600,000 barrels per day and Energy Aspects putting permanent losses at 300,000 barrels per day. FGE NexantECA expects China’s crude imports to drop by as much as 3.3 million barrels per day this quarter due to lower refinery run rates, the end of stockpiling and a fuel export ban that has lifted domestic supply. The report attributes the demand destruction to a structural shift toward transport electrification rather than a short-term disruption.

The article argues that the rapid expansion of AI compute is running into a power-infrastructure bottleneck. It says global data center electricity demand is projected to climb 165% by 2030 versus 2023, while delayed grid expansion has contributed to more than 70% of U.S. interconnection requests being withdrawn. It adds that ongoing AI capital spending continues to benefit hardware suppliers such as NVIDIA, Broadcom and Wolfspeed, and points to Bitzero (AIBZ) as an example of how scarce power assets are driving a new valuation framework.

Iraq says it will maintain an alternative crude export route through Syria’s Mediterranean port of Baniyas even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal, starting at about 50,000 barrels per day with scope to expand. The plan follows disruptions after Hormuz closures exposed vulnerabilities in Iraq’s export system and pushed storage levels higher. The backdrop includes renewed market concern over Middle East shipping risks after U.S.-Iran talks were postponed and Iran’s IRGC warned vessels against entering the Strait. The arrangement does not add supply directly, but highlights uncertainty around key transit routes and supports the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices.

Israel and Hezbollah agreed on a temporary ceasefire in southern Lebanon on Friday, easing pressure from a recently escalating regional conflict. The pause offers breathing room ahead of U.S.–Iran talks under a 60-day framework agreement, prompting markets to reassess Middle East supply risks. Brent crude has rebounded from this week’s low of $77 a barrel to above $80 a barrel, according to the report. The truce does not resolve core security demands, and uncertainty remains over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a broader restoration of supply.

Libya’s National Oil Corporation has completed the first 2025 tender for oil and gas blocks, signing agreements with companies including Repsol, Eni and QatarEnergy in the country’s first major licensing push in 17 years. Output is running at 1.4 million bpd, a 10-year high, and officials are targeting 1.6 million bpd by year-end. Italy, Greece, Spain, Turkey, as well as Egypt, Tunisia and Nigeria have recently expanded or resumed purchases of Libyan crude. Despite the east-west political split and risks around revenue diversion, an April unified budget framework allowed both sides to share oil income, supporting near-term supply stability.

The U.S. and Iran have signed a 14-point memorandum that lifted a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, allowing tankers — including Saudi supertankers — to resume transits. Shipping companies and insurers remain cautious about route security, with fighting in Lebanon ongoing and Israel saying it will keep troops in a security zone in southern Lebanon. Iran has warned that continued Israeli occupation could void the agreement. Separately, the U.S. is pushing to link Venezuela’s Loran gas field with Trinidad’s LNG facilities to strengthen an Atlantic gas export corridor.

India’s government has directed Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) to invest $1.6 billion to build a new 1.75 million-metric-ton underground strategic petroleum reserve facility in Mangaluru. The project would lift India’s total underground crude storage capacity by about one third to around 7 million metric tons, or roughly 52 million barrels, while cover would still be only about 9–10 days. The move follows a supply crisis tied to conflict in the Middle East that pushed up India’s energy import bill and domestic fuel prices.

Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. said the country is working toward a long-term arrangement to buy oil from Russia as it looks to reduce reliance on Middle Eastern crude shipped via the Strait of Hormuz. The Philippines imported in April its first cargo of Russia’s Far Eastern ESPO crude in six years. Before the war, the country sourced 98% of its oil from the Middle East, and it declared a national energy emergency in March.