Wednesday, July 15, 2026 Hot topics 1) U.S. President Donald Trump said global oil liquidity is at its highest level and announced he will drop the proposed "20% U.S. compensation fee", replacing it with trade and investment agreements between Gulf countries and the United States. 2) Iranian media reported that on July 14, Rezaei, a military adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, said the Iran–U.S. memorandum of understanding "no longer exists" and that "the enemy has officially entered a state of war." 3) Mysteel reported a major ferrosilicon producer in Ningxia is overhauling eight 45,000 kVA submerged-arc furnaces, cutting output by about 1,200–1,300 tons per day. 4) A new coal mine in Qinyuan County, Changzhi, has resumed operations with approved capacity of 2.1 million tons, producing low-sulfur lean coking coal. 5) U.S. core CPI (not seasonally adjusted) for June rose 2.6% year over year, below the 2.8% market forecast. Core CPI was flat month over month (0%), versus expectations for 0.2%, marking the smallest increase since January 2021. 6) Trump said the U.S. held talks with Iran and warned strikes could target power plants. Macro and geopolitics - Trump wrote that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open to all vessels except those from Iran. He said the U.S. will implement a full blockade only for ships traveling to or from Iranian ports or carrying Iran-related goods. He also attacked Iran's leadership and reiterated the shift away from the "20% U.S. compensation fee" toward Gulf-U.S. trade and investment accords. - The People's Bank of China said it will conduct a RMB 1.4 trillion outright reverse repo operation on July 15, 2026, via fixed-quantity, rate tender and multi-price allocation. The 6-month (184-day) operation matures January 15, 2027 (rolled if it falls on a holiday), aimed at keeping banking-system liquidity ample. - Maersk said global supply chains are facing structural disruption from geopolitics, shifting trade flows and climate dynamics. It flagged heightened uncertainty in Latin America around costs, capacity and service reliability, with climate-sensitive commodities and export routes exposed to greater risk. - China's General Administration of Customs said China–U.S. goods trade in the first half totaled RMB 2 trillion, or 7.9% of China's total foreign trade value. Trade fell 18.7% in Q1 and rose 13.7% in Q2. - Iranian media reiterated Rezaei's July 14 comments that the Iran–U.S. memorandum of understanding no longer exists and that "the enemy" has entered a wartime posture. - Trump said strikes against Iran will continue "until I say 'enough'." He said the U.S. spoke with Iran on Tuesday and urged Tehran to reach an agreement, adding that Iran's energy facilities would be targeted last. - U.S. Central Command said maritime blockades on vessels traveling to and from Iranian ports and coastal areas resumed at 4:00 p.m. ET (4:00 a.m. Beijing time on the 15th). It said more than 20 U.S. Navy ships and hundreds of military aircraft are deployed in the Middle East, with forces on high alert and ready to act. - Axios, citing U.S. and Israeli officials, reported Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by phone that Israel should begin redeploying forces out of Syria and take similar steps in Lebanon, arguing Israeli troop presence in Syria is fueling regional tensions. Global futures snapshot - Energy: Front-month WTI crude settled up 2.16% at $79.83/bbl; front-month Brent rose 2.21% to $85.14/bbl. - Precious metals: COMEX gold gained 1.31% to $4,058.30/oz; COMEX silver rose 1.84% to $59.04/oz. - Base metals (LME): Tin +1.71% to $53,500/ton; copper +0.44% to $13,600/ton; zinc +0.36% to $3,579/ton; aluminum -0.08% to $3,167/ton; nickel -0.10% to $16,750/ton; lead -0.11% to $1,866.5/ton. Ferrous and bulk commodities - Mysteel said Hebei Iron & Steel Group set its July 2026 silicomanganese price at RMB 5,950/ton, versus RMB 5,980/ton in June (July 2025: RMB 5,850/ton). Purchase volume is 15,400 tons, unchanged from June (July 2025: 14,600 tons). - China's environment minister Huang Runqiu visited Yinchuan, Shizuishan and Guyuan in Ningxia from July 11–12 to inspect ecological and environmental protection work, including air-pollution controls in coking, ferroalloy smelting and carbon-related industries at Pingluo Industrial Park. - Australia's Maritime Union said BHP workers and representatives held a five-hour wage negotiation on Tuesday without reaching agreement. More talks are scheduled for July 21. Workers plan to continue a strike on July 16. - Mysteel reiterated that maintenance on eight 45,000 kVA ferrosilicon furnaces in Ningxia is reducing output by about 1,200–1,300 tons per day, driven by generator-unit maintenance requiring major furnace overhauls. Restart timing remains unclear. - Mysteel satellite data showed combined iron ore inventories at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil totaled 14.199 million tons in the July 6–12 week, down 195,000 tons from the prior week. Inventories remain at the higher end of the year's range. - The Qinyuan County coal mine restart is expected to be gradual. The shutdown previously reduced raw coal output by about 350,000 tons. Current output is around 1,000 tons per day, with near-term normalization difficult. Two mines in the county are now back online, with combined approved capacity of 3.6 million tons; no further restart notices have been issued. Agriculture - China State Reserve Cotton Management Co., Ltd. said it will sell a portion of state reserve cotton starting July 20, 2026, on each statutory working day. Daily listing volume will be set based on market conditions. The listing price will be determined dynamically, generally linked to domestic and international cotton spot prices using a 50/50 weighting of the domestic spot index and the international spot index, adjusted weekly. - USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service forecast Brazil's 2026/27 soybean output and exports will hit record highs on expanded planted area. Output is projected at 184 million metric tons, the third straight record year, up 2.2% from the revised 2025/26 estimate of 180 million metric tons. - India's Solvent Extractors' Association said June palm oil imports fell about 11% month over month to 487,846 metric tons. Soybean oil imports dropped 23% to 380,815 metric tons; sunflower oil imports fell about 18% to 242,870 metric tons. Total vegetable oil imports declined 16% to 1.15 million metric tons. - China's customs data showed June 2026 edible vegetable oil imports of 5.03 million tons, versus 5.00 million tons in May. January–June edible vegetable oil imports totaled 34.28 million tons, up from 31.86 million tons a year earlier. Soybean imports totaled 50.154 million tons in January–June; June imports were 13.547 million tons, versus 11.791 million tons in May. - The National Center for Grain and Oil Information said that as of July 10, 2026, commercial inventories of China's three major edible oils edged up to 2.24 million tons, up 60,000 tons week over week and 180,000 tons month over month, down 40,000 tons year over year, and 140,000 tons above the three-year average for the same period. - The European Commission said that as of July 12, EU palm oil imports for 2026/27 were 48,343 tons, versus 77,989 tons a year earlier; EU soybean imports for 2026/27 were 208,550 tons, versus 534,565 tons a year earlier. - Brazil's CONAB July outlook projected 2025/26 soybean production at 180.568 million metric tons, up 9.0875 million metric tons, or 5.3%, from the prior year. Planted area is seen at 48.6406 million hectares, up 1.2945 million hectares, or 2.7%. - Brazil's grain exporters association Anec raised its July export estimates for soybeans, soybean meal and corn. July soybean exports are pegged at 13.76 million metric tons, up from 12.26 million previously. Anec now expects soybean exports to be 1.8 million metric tons higher than the same period last year. Energy and chemicals - China's customs data showed June 2026 imports of natural and synthetic rubber at 5.92 million metric tons, up from 5.31 million in May. January–June imports totaled 39.35 million metric tons, versus 40.74 million a year earlier. - Longzhong Information said Jiangsu port benzene inventories stood at 56,800 metric tons in the week ending July 13, down 3,000 tons, or 5.02%, from the prior week. It marked the 20th straight weekly decline, with cumulative drops exceeding 70%, and inventories hit another record low. Metals and macro indicators - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange said it will raise the maximum standard warehouse receipt quantity at Sichuan Tianhua Times Lithium Energy Co., Ltd. (No. 99 New Energy Avenue, Ganmei Industrial Park, Dongpo District, Meishan, Sichuan) from 900 tons to 2,000 tons. - ADP said that over the four weeks ending June 27, 2026, private-sector employers added an average of 19,750 jobs per week. - LME position data showed that as of the week ending July 10, 2026, investment funds held a net long position of 26,300 lots in LME copper, up 3,185 lots week over week. Longs rose 2,771 lots and shorts fell 414 lots. - U.S. June CPI (not seasonally adjusted) rose 3.5% year over year (prior 4.2%), below the 3.8% forecast. Seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.4% month over month, described as the largest decline since April 2020. Core CPI details remained 2.6% y/y and 0% m/m (both not seasonally adjusted). Research views - Sinopec Futures said the renewed U.S.–Iran tensions helped push oil sharply higher, with geopolitical risk premium recovering from low levels. It highlighted tighter inventory buffers and a snugger refined products market than earlier in the year, arguing near-term support may be firmer than during the initial phase of the conflict. Key watchpoints include the pace of Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization (post-June memorandum average of 28 vessels per day, about 22% of pre-war levels; IEA previously suggested 6–8 months for full normalization even with an agreement), the intensity of escalation and potential damage to Iran's energy infrastructure, and confirmation from subsequent inventory data. - Yong'an Futures said lithium carbonate is in a phase of temporary price recovery rather than a one-way bull run. It cited softer weekly output, temporary stoppages or cuts among some Zimbabwe-linked lithium salt producers, and concerns over Zimbabwe ore import rhythms tightening near-term supply. It also said post-07 contract expiry reduced visible warehouse receipt pressure while previously hidden inventories surfaced and were absorbed. If disruptions persist and supply restarts remain slow while seasonal demand picks up, the supply-demand balance could tighten further, leaving room for additional upside. It sees a firmer short-term floor and a shift into a relatively strong range-bound market. Key events and data - July 15 (time TBA): WBMS global May metals supply and demand conditions. - July 15, 10:00: State Council Information Office press conference on national economic performance. - July 16, 02:00: Federal Reserve Beige Book on economic conditions.