Bitcoin climbed back above $78,000 on Feb. 2, trading at $78,005 with its 24-hour decline narrowing to 1.27%, HTX data show. The move marks a recovery from earlier weakness during the same period.

Raoul Pal said on Feb. 1 that his global liquidity model implies Bitcoin near $140,000, but an event he calls '1011' has left crypto lagging stocks and gold, BlockBeats reports. He described a Trump tariff shock that triggered leveraged liquidations; at the peak, the Binance API briefly interrupted, restricting professional market makers, with top CEXs absorbing positions on their balance sheets and later algorithmically selling around U.S. equity market open, estimating inventories possibly around $10 billion. Pal expects the sell pressure to be largely digested by end-February and said Bitcoin could quickly catch up toward $140,000; he also argued Strategy debt risk is manageable and that Saylor used debt and equity issuance to clean up the balance sheet.

Michael Saylor shared a Bitcoin Tracker update and wrote "More Orange" on Feb. 1, BlockBeats reports. Strategy has typically disclosed additional Bitcoin holdings the day after such messages.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt said on Feb. 1 that Bitcoin could fall to $58,000, citing a chart that places BTC near the lower bound of a logarithmic channel, BlockBeats reports. The visualization indicated a continued bear market. A day earlier, Brandt projected Bitcoin would bottom and rebound between August and October before a further surge.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said on Feb. 1 that Bitcoin's recent decline reflects persistent selling pressure and the absence of fresh capital inflows, BlockBeats reports. He noted that early holders, whose unrealized gains were supported by ETF and MSTR buying, began locking in profits from early last year, and while strong inflows at the time helped keep the price around $100,000, those inflows have now largely dried up. Ju described MSTR as the main driver of Bitcoin's latest advance and said that unless Saylor sells holdings aggressively, a 70% decline similar to earlier cycles is unlikely. He added that the market bottom is not yet identifiable and this bear phase could develop into a broad, range-bound consolidation.

Bitcoin returned -10.17% in January, its fifth-worst January performance since 2013 and well below the historical January average of 2.81%, Coinglass data show on Feb. 1. Ethereum recorded a -17.52% January return, its third-weakest January since 2017 and significantly under the long-term average of 16.81%. Bitcoin's historical February average stands at 12.2% with only 3 negative instances, while Ethereum shows a 10.37% February average with 2 negative instances.

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded more than $1.6 billion in net outflows in January, Farside Investors data show. FBTC saw approximately $841.7 million withdrawn, GBTC recorded around $449.5 million in net redemptions, and IBIT posted about $136.5 million of net outflows.

Glassnode updated Bitcoin's on-chain key price distribution on Feb. 1 as the price fell to $78,000, BlockBeats reports. Short-term holder cost basis stood at $95,400, active investors at $87,300, realized market mean at $80,500, spot price at $78,600, and network average cost basis at $55,900.