Sugar prices hold above Monday’s 2-month low as supply risks offset stronger dollar

Japan’s Meteorological Agency has confirmed an El Niño pattern across the equatorial Pacific, while NOAA puts the odds of a record “Super El Niño” this year at 67%. In India, cumulative monsoon rainfall was 42% below normal as of June 24, and officials warned the season could be the weakest in 11 years. In Brazil’s 2026/27 season, sugar output has been revised lower and mills have shifted cane toward ethanol, with sugar’s share falling to 41.42% and ethanol’s rising to 58.38%. Several forecasters including ISO and StoneX have also cut their 2026/27 global balance outlook from surplus to deficit, even as near-term prices remain choppy under a stronger U.S. dollar.