Heavy Rains Stall Brazil Coffee Harvest as ICE Arabica Stocks Slide to 2.25-Year Low

Persistent heavy rain in Brazil’s south-central region is expected to bring more than 50 millimeters this week, delaying harvesting and potentially hurting bean quality. ICE arabica coffee inventories have dropped to a 2.25-year low of 385,191 bags, while ICE robusta stocks, despite a recent rebound, remain near two-year lows. With NOAA putting the odds of a “Super El Niño” at 67%, the market is focused on the risk of abnormal rainfall around next year’s flowering period and potential fallout for the 2026/27 crop.