Roy Morgan: 32.3% of Australian mortgage households under stress in August as cash rate rises to 4.60%
AI Market Summary
Australian mortgage stress hit post-GFC highs as the RBA raised the cash rate to 4.60% and markets price further hikes, tightening financial conditions and increasing recession risk. The survey highlights unemployment sensitivity, with policy aiming for higher joblessness to curb inflation. Added tail risk from diesel supply shocks could lift energy costs and CPI, forcing more tightening. This mix is negative for AUD and domestic risk assets.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCFXAUD2USD/USDT-0.30%
AI Insight · NCFXAUD2USD/USDTAI Insight
▼ Bearish
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Roy Morgan’s latest survey found 32.3% of Australian mortgage households were under mortgage stress in August, including 22.7% in “extreme” stress, the highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis. The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% on Tuesday, and markets have priced in at least one and possibly two further increases. With additional tightening, mortgage rates could approach 7.0%. Roy Morgan estimates that if the cash rate rises to 4.85% in November, the share of households at risk would climb to 33.9%.
