Ghana’s 2025/26 cocoa harvest rises to 750,000 MT, pressuring New York and London futures
Cocoa futures softened as Ghana's 2025/26 harvest rose to 750k MT (+25.6% y/y), Ivory Coast port arrivals are up 20%, and Nigeria's June exports increased 30%, reinforcing near-term supply availability. ICE inventories also climbed to a 2-year high, adding pressure. Offsetting factors include mixed Q2 grindings, El Niño-related crop risks, and expectations for tighter 2026/27 balances, but near-term supply signals dominated.
AI Insight · NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDTAI Insight
▼ Bearish
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Ghana’s cocoa board said 750,000 MT has been harvested for the 2025/26 season, up 25.6% from 597,000 MT in 2024/25. In Ivory Coast, cumulative shipments to ports in the current marketing year reached 2.11 MMT, up 20% year on year. Nigerian cocoa exports in June rose 30% y/y to 18,922 MT, according to Bloomberg. The larger supply signals weighed on prices, with both New York and London cocoa futures ending lower.