Kalshi Markets Put 68% Odds on Fable 5 Returning Before July 1, 2026

On June 12, 2026, the U.S. Commerce Department directed Anthropic to suspend access to Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5, prompting a worldwide shutdown of both models. Prediction-market traders then began pricing when access might return, with Kalshi showing 68% odds for a restoration before July 1, 2026 and Polymarket listing a 71% chance by July 1.