J.P. Morgan cuts its Brent forecast for H2 2026

J.P. Morgan lowered its Brent crude price forecasts for 2026, projecting $86 a barrel in Q3 and $80 in Q4, with an end-2026 level of $78. The bank cited smaller-than-expected draws in OECD commercial inventories and a larger-than-expected decline in oil demand. It also said private operators have largely avoided drawing down stocks, leaving refineries reliant on releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). The report expects a sizable oversupply in 4Q26 through 1H27 that could force production curbs in early 2027.