Persian Gulf crude exports rebound to 16.5 million bpd in September as more flows bypass the Strait of Hormuz
AI Market Summary
Persian Gulf crude exports recovered to near prewar levels (ex-Iran), but a larger share is bypassing the Strait of Hormuz via pipelines, Red Sea routes, and ship-to-ship transfers. This reduces Iran's ability to disrupt flows, yet the need for military escort, higher insurance costs, and operational workarounds keeps a geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil pricing. Refining bottlenecks are also sustaining elevated diesel prices despite higher crude availability.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
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AI Insight · NCCO1OILBRENT2USD/USDTAI Insight
● Neutral
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Crude exports from the Persian Gulf returned to near prewar levels in September, excluding Iran, averaging 16.5 million barrels per day. The share of regional crude moving through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 60% from 83% before the war, with about 9.9 million barrels per day crossing the chokepoint. The remaining 40% bypassed Hormuz via pipelines and other routes through Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Greater reliance on pipelines, offshore transfers and military escorts has reduced Iran’s leverage over the strait.
