Ethanol blending push and El Nino risks tighten India’s sugar export surplus through 2026-09-30

India has extended its sugar export ban through September 30, 2026 as El Nino raises the risk of weaker cane output and more cane is diverted into ethanol after the country reached 20% blending in 2025. For 2025–26, sugar output is projected at 30.95 million tonnes against domestic consumption of 28.5 million tonnes, with 3.4 million tonnes diverted to ethanol, leaving only a thin exportable balance. In the current season, production is estimated at around 27.9 million tonnes, close to annual domestic consumption, limiting room for exports after shipments of about 800,000 tonnes were allowed before the halt.