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Dollar index drops 0.55% and gold jumps 1.87% after US June CPI undershoots forecasts

AI Market Summary
US June CPI and core CPI printed below expectations, driving a sharp repricing of July FOMC tightening odds lower and pushing the dollar and Treasury yields down. That macro impulse supported a strong rally in gold and silver. Geopolitical escalation and a jump in crude created cross-currents via higher inflation expectations, but did not offset the CPI-driven shift in near-term rates and FX positioning.
Impact level
● High
Affected assets
NCCOGOLD2USD/USDT+0.18%
AI Insight · NCCOGOLD2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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US June CPI rose 3.5% year on year, below the 3.8% market forecast, while core CPI increased 2.6%, also under expectations. Swaps pricing cut the implied probability of a July FOMC rate hike to 12% from 43%. The dollar index (DXY) fell 0.55% on the day and the front-month gold contract surged 1.87%. Major currency pairs moved in tandem, while a flare-up in Middle East tensions and a jump in oil prices acted as partial offsets without overturning CPI-driven trading.
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