Arabica and Robusta Coffee Futures Jump More Than 5% as Brazil Supply Concerns Build
AI Market Summary
Coffee futures surged as supply risks tightened near-term availability. Brazil's harvest pace is behind last year and the 5-year average, while Minas Gerais rainfall is only ~11% of normal, raising drought concerns. ICE arabica inventories fell to a multi-year low, and Colombia's earthquake-related export disruptions add uncertainty. Offsetting factors include higher Vietnam robusta exports and USDA expectations for higher 2026/27 global output.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOCOFFEE2USD/USDT+5.42%
AI Insight · NCCOCOFFEE2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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December-delivery arabica coffee futures rose 5.89%, while September-delivery robusta futures gained 5.34%. Rainfall in Brazil’s key producing state of Minas Gerais has recently been just 11% of the historical average, raising drought concerns for supply. By mid-August, Brazil’s coffee harvest was 90% complete, behind 97% a year earlier and the five-year average of 94%. Arabica harvesting lagged further at 86%, compared with 95% last year.
