Cocoa prices soften as dollar strengthens and ICE inventories climb to a 2-year high
AI Market Summary
ICE cocoa inventories hit a two-year high and a stronger USD are near-term headwinds, reinforcing recent demand concerns after weak European grindings. Offsetting this, North American and Asian grindings surprised to the upside, and forward-looking supply risk is rising: early surveys point to an 18% y/y drop in Ivory Coast 2026/27 output, with a potentially strong El Niño threatening West African yields. The balance is shifting toward tighter medium-term fundamentals.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDT+1.65%
AI Insight · NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDTAI Insight
● Neutral
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ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 2-year high of 3,279,012 bags, and a stronger dollar added near-term pressure to prices. Attention is increasingly shifting to tighter medium- to long-term supply, including early surveys that peg Ivory Coast’s 2026/27 crop at 1.8 MMT, down 18% year on year, alongside El Niño-related drought risks for West Africa. StoneX has sharply cut its projected global cocoa surplus for 2026/27. Nigeria’s exports rose 30% year on year in June, but its own output is projected to fall 11%, while Ghana and the Ivory Coast have also reduced official farmgate prices, underscoring strains across the supply chain.
