Brazil extends lead in China’s soybean imports as US January–June shipments drop 42.4%
AI Market Summary
China's H1 soybean imports show a sharp shift toward Brazil: Brazilian volumes rose to 34.75mt (+9.1% YoY) while US shipments fell to 9.31mt (-42.4%), despite a multi-year purchase pledge. Record June arrivals reflect Brazilian supply and clearance of delayed cargoes, pressuring near-term spot pricing dynamics and altering nearby contract basis and spreads as trade flows reprice origin risk.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOSOYBEANS2USD/USDT-0.42%
AI Insight · NCCOSOYBEANS2USD/USDTAI Insight
▼ Bearish
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Brazil shipped 34.75 million tonnes of soybeans to China in the first half, up 9.1% year on year, while US exports to China fell 42.4% to 9.31 million tonnes. June arrivals hit a record 13.55 million tonnes, boosted by greater Brazilian supply and the clearance of cargoes previously delayed at Chinese ports. The shift toward Brazil comes despite China’s pledge to buy at least 25 million tonnes of US soybeans a year through 2028, reshaping the import mix and affecting spot pricing and nearby contract premiums and discounts.
