The report highlights growing use of AI-driven virtual clinical trial simulations to screen drug candidates and reduce late-stage failure risk. While broad adoption could lower R&D costs and improve pipeline efficiency across biotech and pharma, the evidence remains mixed, with notable misses on high-profile trials. Near-term market impact is likely incremental, influencing investor focus on R&D productivity, trial-risk assessment, and M&A diligence.
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AI companies are running virtual drug trials in an effort to improve the success rate of human clinical studies. Novartis’ once‑touted del-desiran missed its target in a late-stage trial, sending the stock down 11% in a single session and wiping out $30 billion in market value. Takeda’s head of research said the TYK2 target was identified through human genetics analysis, and machine learning was used to refine the structure of a once-daily oral pill.