Wintermute Warns Bitcoin Could Retest $59,000 in Near Term

Crypto market maker Wintermute says Bitcoin and Ethereum are drifting toward the lower end of their recent ranges as summer liquidity fades, raising the risk of a deeper pullback. In a Wednesday note shared with CoinDesk, the firm's OTC desk said that if selling pressure persists, $59,000 is the key near-term level for Bitcoin. Options markets are signaling subdued short-dated volatility. Wintermute's one-day straddle pricing implies Bitcoin is expected to trade roughly between $61,242 and $63,563 over the next 24 hours, corresponding to about 1.9% implied volatility. For Ethereum, the implied range is about $1,606 to $1,694, with implied volatility around 2.7%. Wintermute attributed the current constraint on major tokens to a mix of macro and geopolitical headwinds. The Federal Reserve struck a hawkish tone last week, while recurring headlines tied to Iran-related tensions have kept risk sentiment unstable. The firm also flagged a deterioration in market structure: correlations across tokens are rising, meaning prices are moving more in sync rather than reacting to asset-specific fundamentals. With seasonal liquidity typically thinner in summer and no fresh wave of institutional demand appearing in current ETF flows, the market is more exposed to macro data surprises and position adjustments. Against that backdrop, Wintermute highlighted $59,000 as a critical support area for Bitcoin, describing it as a bear-market low and an important floor if resistance persists. For the rest of the week, Wintermute expects attention to center on three catalysts: whether the U.S.-Iran peace agreement holds, Thursday's U.S. PCE inflation release, and month-end quarterly options expiration. PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and could shift rate expectations, while quarterly expiries can amplify swings when traders roll or close large positions.