U.S. Forces Fire Hellfire Missile at Tanker Bound for Iran

Thursday, July 16, 2026 — Futures Morning Rush Top headlines 1) China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said it will step up countercyclical and cross-cycle policy adjustments in the next stage, expand domestic demand, optimize supply, cultivate new growth areas, revitalize existing resources, and accelerate the buildout of a strong domestic market. 2) NBS data show preliminary GDP for the first half of the year at RMB 69.5704 trillion, up 4.7% year over year in constant prices. 3) The central bank's 1H 2026 financial statistics report shows outstanding total social financing at end-June 2026 at RMB 46.206 trillion, up 7.4% year over year. 4) NBS: From January to June, total residential floor space under construction by property developers was 5,540,490 square meters, down 12.5% year over year. New starts were 232,390,000 square meters, down 23.4%. Completed floor space was 172,210,000 square meters, down 23.7%. 5) Malaysia raised the August reference export price for crude palm oil to RM4,412.19 per ton (USD 1,084.08) from RM4,346.79 in July; the export tax rate stays at 10%. 6) Longzhong Information: Hunan Yanxiangxi Industrial Co., Ltd. (designed capacity 1,000 tons/day) halted operations on July 15. 7) SMM: The Chilean government convened an emergency meeting with miners including Codelco, Antofagasta, and Teck to assess risks from severe winter storms in key copper regions and review contingency plans. 8) The U.S. military fired Hellfire missiles at a tanker heading toward Iran. Macro - NBS reiterated a policy focus on strengthening countercyclical and cross-cycle adjustments, expanding demand, optimizing supply, fostering new drivers while revitalizing existing capacity, and reinforcing measures to stabilize employment, businesses, markets, and expectations. - NBS: 1H GDP rose 4.7% y/y. By quarter, GDP grew 5.0% in Q1 and 4.3% in Q2. Q2 GDP increased 0.9% quarter over quarter. - Central bank: End-June outstanding total social financing reached RMB 46.206 trillion (+7.4% y/y). RMB loans to the real economy stood at RMB 27.916 trillion (+5.3% y/y). - National Energy Administration: June nationwide electricity consumption totaled 898.1 billion kWh, up 3.7% y/y. Primary industry consumption was 13.6 billion kWh, up 2.0%. - PBOC Deputy Governor Zou Lan said monetary policy will be calibrated in strength, timing, and pace based on domestic and global economic and financial conditions and market developments, with an emphasis on bolstering domestic demand and optimizing supply to strengthen internal growth momentum. - U.S. Central Command said it completed a strike against Iran at 7:30 a.m. ET on July 15 (19:30 Beijing time). During the 90-minute operation, precision-guided munitions targeted coastal defense systems and cruise missile storage and launch sites on Greater Tunb Island. - Fed Chair Walsh said recent inflation data do not perfectly capture underlying inflation, adding that central banks welcome data moving in the right direction. - U.S. President Trump said Iran allowed an American citizen, wrongly detained during the Biden administration in December 2024, to leave the country; she has departed safely and is in good health. - U.S. Central Command said U.S. forces enforced a maritime blockade in the Arabian Gulf on July 15, stopping a commercial tanker attempting to reach Iran's Kharg Island. The Curaçao-flagged M/T Belma ignored multiple warnings in international waters and attempted to breach the blockade. A U.S. aircraft then fired a Hellfire missile at the ship's funnel, disabling propulsion; the vessel halted its voyage to Iran. - Iran's Tasnim News Agency cited a foreign ministry spokesperson saying any aggression against Iranian territory will be met with an equivalent response; Iran has no current plans for negotiations and is focused on defense. Global futures moves - Energy: Front-month WTI settled up 1.13% at USD 80.24/bbl; front-month Brent rose 0.39% to USD 85.06/bbl. - Precious metals: COMEX gold fell 0.07% to USD 4,066.90/oz; COMEX silver slid 1.70% to USD 58.10/oz. - Base metals (LME): Nickel +0.39% to USD 16,830.0/ton; copper -0.45% to USD 13,581.0/ton; aluminum -0.76% to USD 3,153.0/ton; lead -0.83% to USD 1,850.5/ton; zinc -1.31% to USD 3,551.5/ton; tin -1.90% to USD 52,790.0/ton. Steel and bulk commodities - Mysteel: Hebei Iron & Steel's July 75B ferrosilicon tender price was set at CNY 6,130/ton, up CNY 30 from the prior round (CNY 6,100/ton). Inquiry price: CNY 5,900/ton. Tender volume: 3,380 tons (including 900 tons for Tangshan Medium Plate), up 780 tons from 2,600 tons previously. - NBS: June crude steel output was 83.67 million tons (+0.4% y/y). January–June output totaled 499.95 million tons (-3% y/y). (Real estate construction/start/completion figures for January–June remained: under construction 5,540,490 million sq m (-12.5%); new starts 232.39 million sq m (-23.4%); completions 172.21 million sq m (-23.7%).) - Zhonggang Network: For the week ending July 15, national construction materials output was 4.3884 million tons, down 0.08 million tons w/w. Inventory was 11.6302 million tons, up 0.0465 million tons w/w. Apparent demand was 4.3419 million tons, down 0.0675 million tons w/w. - BHP: Q4 iron ore production was 68.1 million tons (-3% y/y). Q4 metallurgical coal output was 5.7 million tons (+10% y/y). Q4 thermal coal output was 4.2 million tons (+3% y/y). Agriculture - GAPKI: Indonesia's palm oil exports in May were 1.996 million tons, down 28.12% m/m and down 25.1% from 2.664 million tons a year earlier. May crude palm oil output was 4.165 million tons, down 7% m/m. End-May inventories rose to 3.042 million tons (+18.9% m/m) as exports fell faster than production. - MPOB: Malaysia's August reference export price for crude palm oil rose to RM4,412.19/ton (USD 1,084.08) from RM4,346.79 in July; export tax unchanged at 10%. - ITS: Malaysia palm oil exports for July 1–15 were 739,282 tons, up 12.43% from 657,557 tons over the same period last month. - AmSpec: Malaysia palm oil exports for July 1–15 were 646,438 tons, up 3.98% from 621,704 tons over the same period last month. - Anec: Brazil exported 3,003,711 tons of soybeans, 597,180 tons of soybean meal, and 383,251 tons of corn in July 5–11. Planned exports for July 12–18: 3,517,308 tons soybeans, 720,477 tons soybean meal, 638,995 tons corn. - NOPA: U.S. June soybean oil stocks were 1.501 billion pounds (vs. 1.653 billion expected; 1.735 billion in May). June soybean crush was 214.34 million bushels (vs. 203.989 million expected; 208.785 million in May). Energy and chemicals - Longzhong: As of July 15, 2026, sampled producers' butadiene rubber inventory was 23,400 metric tons, up 6.85 percentage points from the prior period. As of July 10, 2026, social warehouse inventory was 22,900 metric tons, down 3.54 percentage points. - Longzhong: Hunan Yanxiangxi Industrial Co., Ltd. (1,000 tons/day designed capacity) halted production on July 15. - Fujairah Oil Industrial Zone: For the week ending July 13, total product stocks at Fujairah port were 10.147 million barrels, up 18,000 barrels w/w. Light distillates rose 191,000 barrels to 1.77 million; middle distillates fell 120,000 barrels to 1.115 million; heavy residual fuel oil fell 53,000 barrels to 7.262 million. - Longzhong: As of July 15, 2026, China's total methanol port inventory was 401,500 metric tons, down 45,200 from the prior period. East China fell 79,500; South China rose 34,300. - Two industry sources: Salavatnefteorgsintez, one of Russia's largest petrochemical producers in the Ural region, suspended operations Tuesday after a Ukrainian drone strike. The regional governor confirmed the incident and said output should resume within a few days. - EIA: For the week ending July 10, U.S. crude exports rose 459,000 bpd to 3.721 million bpd. Commercial crude imports excluding strategic reserves increased 60,000 bpd to 5.689 million bpd. SPR stocks fell 2.985 million barrels to 316.5 million barrels (-0.93%). Metals - SMM: Chile convened miners including Codelco, Antofagasta, and Teck to gauge the impact of severe winter storms. Prolonged heavy rainfall could disrupt mine operations, roads, ports, and concentrate shipments; the extent depends on whether rainfall spreads further north into core mining areas. - Antofagasta: Q2 2026 copper output was 142,000 metric tons, down 1% q/q. Gold output was 46,300 ounces, unchanged q/q. - Indonesia ESDM: The HMA nickel reference price for the second half of July 2026 was set at USD 16,533.67/ton, down USD 1,059.66 from USD 17,593.33 in the first half, a 6.02% decline. - China Passenger Car Association: July 1–12 nationwide passenger vehicle retail sales were 443,000 units, down 15% y/y and down 1% m/m. Year-to-date retail sales totaled 9.144 million units, down 20% from the same period last year. - LME: On July 15, lead inventories jumped 86,500 metric tons to 456,575 metric tons. Following concentrated deliveries, LME lead stocks have surged for two consecutive days, up a cumulative 167,200 metric tons, mainly in Singapore. - Silicon Industry Association: Supply dynamics diverged this week. Output is rising as leading producers restart, but planned full-scale maintenance at several new facilities limited overall growth. July polysilicon production is expected to keep increasing, with the supply surplus unchanged. - Codelco Chairman Bernardo Fontaine said Wednesday that copper output is expected to stay stable over the coming years, near current levels. - WBMS: In May 2026, global refined copper production was 2.2741 million tons and consumption 2.2529 million, a surplus of 21,200 tons. Refined nickel production was 301,300 tons and consumption 314,700, a deficit of 13,400 tons. Refined tin production was 29,600 tons and consumption 35,000, a deficit of 5,400 tons. Research notes - Pulp: Da Di Futures said Canfor announced on July 15 the permanent closure of its Northern Bleached Kraft Pulp mill, with a full shutdown expected by end-2026, citing global oversupply and a long-term decline in local wood fiber supply. After the announcement, Arauco's Silver Star raised long-term contract prices by USD 20/ton. The closure is seen as the first major capacity exit in 2026 since Lion Pulp shut in December 2025, but the overall market impact is limited and unlikely to change weak global pulp fundamentals. The note adds that Canada's wood fiber shortage will persist, keeping Canadian pulp mills under the most severe operational pressure globally. With long-term contract prices still low, 4,900 points is viewed as strong valuation resistance; if other softwood brands follow the USD 20/ton increase, the valuation ceiling could move toward 5,000 points, and import arbitrage could later bring spot-market negative feedback. - Coking coal: Sanli Futures said sentiment across the ferrous complex improved on upbeat policy expectations ahead of the month-end meeting and spillovers from a sharp rise in international oil prices. The main coking coal contract gained 1.96% to RMB 1,273/ton. Supply remains tight, with mines prioritizing safety over output expansion across both state-owned and private operators. High-quality core coal supply is limited, downstream coke plants are keeping low feedstock inventories, and buying interest remains steady. Spot prices are expected to see limited downside in the near term. Despite ongoing negative feedback and slightly weaker raw-material demand, futures downside is still supported. Key data and events to watch 1) China rebar weekly production and inventory data through July 16 2) U.S. June retail sales 3) USDA export sales report 4) China East China port methanol inventory as of July 16