Fourth Tanker Struck Near Hormuz as Regional Crude Exports Rebound to 98% of Prewar Levels

A tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz was hit by an unknown projectile on Oct. 4, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said. The vessel sustained engine-room damage. All crew were reported safe, and no environmental impact had been identified at the time of the alert. The incident is the latest in a cluster of attacks reported around the waterway since the start of October, marking the fourth vessel struck in the current run of incidents. JPMorgan estimates Middle East crude shipments have climbed back to about 17.5 million barrels per day, roughly 98% of prewar volumes. The estimate covers total Middle East crude exports rather than only flows through Hormuz. Traffic through the strait has also strengthened, with September volumes estimated at about 12.8 million barrels per day, a sharp rebound from earlier wartime disruption. Saudi Arabia has also brought back export capacity via alternative routes, easing some near-term reliance on Hormuz. Improving supply has helped push prices off recent peaks. Brent fell to about $102.59 a barrel earlier in the week as traders priced in the recovery in Middle East exports. Even so, crude remains well above prewar levels, underscoring that a significant geopolitical risk premium is still embedded in the market. That premium was evident when Brent held above $100 after disruption to Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline curtailed one of the region's key alternative export routes. The latest strike helps explain why prices have not fallen further: repeated attacks can lift insurance and freight costs even if crude continues to move, and shipowners may seek extra compensation to operate through a higher-risk corridor.