U.S. August Payrolls Seen Adding Modest Jobs, With Forecasts Widely Split

Huoxing Finance reports that the U.S. will publish its August nonfarm payrolls report at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time on September 4. Markets are looking for payrolls to rise by 56,000, after July posted an unexpected drop of 23,000. Economists' estimates span from a decline of 25,000 to a gain of 121,000, underscoring sharply different views on the labor market. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.1%, though some forecasts point to 4.2%. Annual wage growth is projected to ease to 3.0% from 3.2%. Morgan Stanley chief economist Michael Gapen estimates that the revocation of temporary protected status for Haitian immigrants could cut payrolls by about 15,000. Offsetting support could come from a rebound in hiring in local government education, as well as leisure and hospitality. Most economists say the payrolls report is unlikely to be a decisive factor for the Federal Reserve's September 15–16 meeting unless the figures deliver a major surprise, with attention set to shift to next week's CPI. Fed Governor Waller said Thursday that if upcoming data confirms inflation pressures are easing, he would favor keeping rates unchanged this month. Markets currently price a 50% chance of a September rate hike, down from 63.2% on Wednesday.