Higher crude prices could lift India’s FY27 fertiliser subsidy bill by about Rs 70,000 crore

India’s fertiliser subsidy outlay is highly sensitive to international crude prices, and a sustained USD 80–90 a barrel range could add about Rs 70,000 crore to spending in FY27. That would imply a 30–40% increase in the subsidy bill and put pressure on the government’s fiscal deficit targets. The strain could also weigh on nontax revenue and corporate tax contributions linked to oil-sector entities, according to Bank of Baroda.