OPEC+ to Keep Oil Output Target Unchanged at Sunday Meeting; Iran Seeks Implementation of Its Terms to End War

Futures Morning Rush Wednesday, October 28, 2026 Futures Morning Rush — the first choice of millions of futures professionals. Audio version: female Mandarin. Download MP3. Top stories 1. Iran’s supreme leader stressed that Tehran’s conditions must be implemented to help end the war. 2. OPEC+ is reported to plan keeping oil production targets unchanged at Sunday’s meeting. 3. Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusts the trading limit for live hog futures LH2701 and raises margins for LH2703 and LH2705. 4. A steel mill in Jieyang has started blast furnace maintenance and halted all production; the roughly 20-day outage is expected to cut monthly output by 60,000 tons. 5. Malaysian palm oil inventories continue to rise, straining storage in the largest producing region. 6. With the heating season approaching, Sinopec units are taking firm steps to prepare natural gas supply under the plan of the group party committee. 7. The National Development and Reform Commission will work with relevant parties to implement and enforce the interim measures for medium- and long-term energy supply contracts, aiming to better regulate and guide contract signing and performance. Macro news 1. CCTV News reported that since October the normally dry central-northern region of Chile has seen repeated heavy rain and severe convective weather due to a strong El Niño. In Santiago, streets have flooded and roads cracked, with rainfall at an all-time record. Chilean meteorologists told CCTV that the peak of this El Niño has not arrived and its impact on Chile may last until May next year, affecting mining and agricultural output. 2. The National Bureau of Statistics said industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide posted total profits of 6,033.74 billion yuan in January-September, up 15.5% year on year. 3. Major General Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, met Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Khamenei called for proactive and timely information releases to sustain public participation in defending the nation and its system. He also stressed the need to secure the rights and interests of the Iranian people and the Resistance Front by implementing the conditions proposed by Iranian officials, in order to end the war and the "neither war nor peace" situation. 4. Sources said Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing phone talks with Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre on prospects for a Ukraine peace agreement. 5. Iran’s Navy said that hours earlier a vessel violating rules switched off its tracking system and tried to transit a restricted and hazardous area east of the Strait of Hormuz; it struck a mine, was damaged and caught fire. 6. US ADP employment change for the week through October 10 was 16,750, compared with 18,500 in the prior week. Global futures market moves 1. International precious metals futures closed mostly higher. COMEX gold rose 0.86% to $4,073.1 an ounce, and COMEX silver gained 0.28% to $54.495 an ounce. Middle East diplomatic efforts and easing geopolitical tensions pulled oil back from recent highs and reduced inflation concerns. Buying interest emerged at lower levels after earlier corrections, creating a temporary balance before Super Central Bank Week. 2. International oil prices fell across the board. US crude dropped 1.53% to $100.20 a barrel, and Brent fell 0.9% to $109.74 a barrel. Middle East diplomatic progress and no further worsening of US-Iran tensions temporarily eased concerns about geopolitical supply disruptions. Earlier risk premiums were unwound and long positions were closed for profit, pulling prices back from six-month highs. 3. Most London base metals rose. LME aluminum gained 1.86% to $3,097.0 a ton, copper rose 0.94% to $14,462.0, zinc added 0.64% to $3,838.5, lead rose 0.60% to $1,934.5, and tin gained 0.56% to $51,305.0. Nickel slipped 0.20% to $15,530.0. Black sector 1. Mysteel research showed that a steel mill in Jieyang has started blast furnace maintenance and halted all production. The maintenance period is about 20 days and is expected to reduce monthly output by 60,000 tons. The mill mainly ships to Guangzhou, Jieyang, Quanzhou and other areas. Inventories are limited, and shipments are expected to tighten gradually. 2. Mysteel satellite data showed that in October 19-25, 2026, total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil reached 11.954 million tons, up 102,000 tons week on week, a slight rebound. Current levels remain in the low range since the start of the second half. 3. On October 27, the online auction for coking coal in Changzhi’s Qinyuan market weakened. Low-sulfur lean coking coal with A≤8, S≤0.5, V≤16 and G≥65 was offered at a starting price of RMB 2,300 a ton, but the full 18,000-ton lot failed to sell, down RMB 64 a ton from the previous auction on October 20. All prices are ex-works, cash and tax-inclusive. Agricultural products 1. The USDA attaché in Buenos Aires said in a report that Argentina’s corn production for the 2026/27 marketing year is projected at 62 million metric tons. The unofficial Foreign Agricultural Service projection exceeds the USDA’s latest official forecast of 55 million metric tons for Argentina’s 2026/27 corn crop. 2. CME Group issued a notice that from November 1 it will reset daily price limit bands for CBOT grain and oilseed futures. This is the second adjustment in 2026 and will remain in effect until the first trading day of May 2027. Daily limits for CBOT soybean, corn and wheat futures will be widened. 3. The National Grain and Strategic Reserves Data Center said oil mills are expected to keep high operating rates in the last week of October, with soybean crush around 2.4 million tons. With downstream demand limited, soybean meal inventories are projected to keep building and may rise slightly to 1.35 million tons by month-end, up about 200,000 tons year on year. 4. Malaysian palm oil inventories continue to rise, putting pressure on storage in the largest palm oil producing region. Industry executives and plantation operators said production in Sarawak on Borneo has exceeded expectations, and sharply higher freight costs have slowed transport, leaving local storage tanks close to full. 5. The Dalian Commodity Exchange said that from trading on October 29, 2026, non-futures company members or clients may not open more than 500 contracts a day in live hog futures LH2701, or more than 1,000 contracts a day in other live hog futures contracts. 6. The Dalian Commodity Exchange said that under its risk management measures, from settlement on Friday, October 30, 2026, the trading margin for live hog futures LH2703 and LH2705 will rise from 8% to 10%. 7. Shipping survey agency SGS estimated Malaysian palm oil exports in October 1-25 at 905,316 tons, down 8.69% from 991,437 tons in the same period last month. 8. Mysteel said 511,900.37 tons of soybeans with production years 2023 and 2024 were offered at auction on October 27, with an opening price of RMB 4,030-4,170 a ton. Final transaction prices ranged from RMB 4,050 to 4,190 a ton, with an average of RMB 4,104.57. A total of 172,240.37 tons sold, a transaction rate of 33.65%. 9. Foreign media reported that India’s cotton shortage is expected to worsen as the country prepares to expand textile and apparel exports under a new free trade agreement. El Niño weather may further reduce domestic production, with India’s cotton output projected to fall 3.4% in the 2026-27 crop year ending in September, hitting a new low. 10. The China Cotton Association said that as of October 27, 166 cotton processing enterprises across the region had obtained eligibility to apply, and a cumulative 1,630 high-quality "sustainable cotton" certificates had been issued, corresponding to 70,000 tons of cotton lint. 11. China’s port soybean oil inventory stood at 1.026 million tons as of October 27, compared with 1.003 million tons on October 20, an increase of 23,000 tons month on month. 12. The Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association, or Anec, forecast Brazil’s October corn exports at 6.1 million metric tons in its weekly report, down about 770,000 tons from the previous week’s forecast. Anec said the volume is up 407,000 tons from the same period last year. October soybean export estimates were cut to 6.15 million metric tons from 6.4 million tons a week earlier, a year-on-year decline of about 245,000 tons. Soybean meal exports are forecast at 2.49 million metric tons, down from 2.52 million tons last week but up about 763,000 tons year on year. Energy and chemicals 1. US President Trump is set to announce a plan to ease federal requirements aimed at sharply reducing methane emissions from oil and gas extraction, framing it as a way to boost domestic energy production and lower costs. 2. Reuters reported, citing three sources, that OPEC+ is likely to keep its December oil production target at Sunday’s meeting while shifting focus to negotiations over 2027 production quotas. 3. The Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange said that with the heating season approaching, Sinopec units are implementing firm measures to prepare natural gas supply under the direction of the group party committee. From gas fields to pipelines and from storage facilities to LNG terminals, units are accelerating new well output and ensuring stable production from mature areas, with targets scheduled and managed backward from key deadlines. 4. Qatar Energy extended the force majeure status for Edison LNG until December. 5. CCTV News reported that the National Development and Reform Commission said on October 27 that it recently issued the "Interim Measures for the Management of Medium- and Long-Term Contracts for Energy Supply Assurance," effective December 1. The move aims to strengthen the energy production, supply, storage and sales system and better use medium- and long-term contracts in energy supply assurance. The NDRC will work with relevant parties to implement the measures, better regulate and guide contract signing and performance, safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of supply and demand parties, protect public interests and ensure secure, stable, reliable and effective energy supply. 6. Tanker data showed that in the four weeks ending October 25, Russia’s seaborne crude exports edged down to 3.55 million barrels a day, 300,000 barrels a day below the four weeks ending October 18 and the lowest in five weeks. 7. US President Trump said he is heading to Corpus Christi, Texas, for an unprecedented rally. He said that thanks to a highly successful military operation, the United States will receive 1 million barrels of Venezuelan oil, after which it will finalize the largest oil agreement in world history. Metals 1. SMM reported that Marubeni said on Tuesday that aluminum inventories at Japan’s three major ports stood at 223,200 tons at the end of September, down 9.5% from 246,600 tons at the end of August. 2. SMM reported that the 700,000-ton production target announced by Chile’s mining minister, Mas, during LME Week is a quantified declaration of the Castro government’s new private-sector-led development policy and a significant upward revision of the 430,000-ton target set under Boric. The increase reflects the new government’s optimistic view of Chile’s lithium resource potential. 3. The Shanghai Futures Exchange plans to revise its zinc futures contract and business rules in line with national standard GB/T 470-2026 for zinc ingots jointly issued by the State Administration for Market Regulation and the Standardization Administration of China. The changes involve optimizing the zinc futures delivery grade and clarifying zinc ingot storage conditions. 4. ICC Xinluo Information data showed global lithium battery production reached 307.5 GWh in September, up 41.9% year on year. January-September global battery production totaled 2,377.49 GWh. Global energy storage battery output was 115.2 GWh in September, up 90.3% year on year, and reached 848.53 GWh in January-September. 5. CATL said on its investor interaction platform on October 27 that it continues to invest firmly in all-solid-state batteries, with technology leading the industry, and expects small-scale production by 2027. 6. The London Metal Exchange position report for the week ending October 23, 2026, showed investment funds held a net long of 25,300 lots in LME copper, down 8,494 lots week on week; a net long of 120,400 lots in aluminum, down 3,030; a net long of 35,000 lots in zinc, down 1,290; a net long of 993 lots in nickel, up 451; a net short of 29,800 lots in lead, down 3,715; and a net long of 1,890 lots in tin, up 44. 7. Peruvian copper miner Antamina announced a preventive shutdown after an incident at one of its facilities in which an employee died. Praise the "Futures" Talk — Uncovering Asset Trading Logic 1. Palm oil breaks down and retreats — has El Niño temporarily stepped back? Everbright Futures said the main palm oil contract weakened sharply on Tuesday, October 27, breaking down on higher volume. The decline in oils and fats followed lower import costs. Domestic inventory pressure remains high, with palm oil stocks at elevated levels. In the near term, palm oil is expected to trade in a weak range; watch geopolitical tensions, import cost changes and end-user demand. The market had bet on a possible exemption from Malaysia’s crude palm oil export tax, but with no official implementation, bullish expectations were gradually disproven and capital exited en masse. FOB prices from producing regions were actively lowered, directly cutting domestic import costs. Domestic palm oil inventories remain high, with substantial forward vessel commitments, ensuring continued pressure on future port arrivals. Overall, the move reflects a shift from speculative expectations back to fundamental spot cost dynamics. Near-term direction will follow Malaysian export quotes and crude oil volatility; medium-term prices remain constrained by seasonal production increases in Southeast Asia and domestic inventory accumulation. The market continues to watch El Niño weather effects on palm oil, but the production decline tied to this disruption is more likely to materialize around 2027, in line with long-dated pricing logic, offering limited support to nearby contracts. Near-term supply-demand factors — high inventories, seasonal production increases and easing import costs — are dominating, causing the forward weather premium to contract temporarily. 2. Price increase expectations disproven! In the seasonal transition, freight rates fell instead of rising, and the Europe route continued to see premium erosion. CGB Futures said the main container shipping Europe route contract 2611 fell 6.96% to 2,253 points, with open interest down 63 contracts. The MSK opening rate for a 40-foot container is $3,000, down $200 month on month. Earlier expectations for a November price hike were disproven, stripping the "peak season premium" from futures and keeping valuation under pressure. Carriers had aggressively announced rate increases for the first half of November to lift contract and spot rates. Actual implementation fell far short: Maersk’s booking rate for Week 45 was only $3,200 per FEU, $100 below the previous week and well under the announced target of $4,000. The latest booking rate for Week 46 fell further to $3,000 per FEU, another $200 weekly decline, showing carriers’ intent to trade lower rates for volume amid insufficient cargo demand. The core driver of the resumption is expected capacity release on the right side of the supply curve, a classic forward-looking catalyst. Since July 2026, the resumption process has accelerated significantly, with Evergreen and Yang Ming announcing the restart of Red Sea routes in November after a three-year hiatus. The PA Alliance and the Twin Star Alliance have disclosed rerouting plans and the first vessels to implement them, while CMA CGM, MSC and Maersk have resumed partial transit through the Suez Canal. Near term, Maersk opening rates have declined week by week, undermining price increase expectations from early November. The premium previously priced into nearby contracts has been disproven, valuations are naturally reverting toward the spot price center, and basis convergence remains the main short-term dynamic. Key futures data and events 1. October 28, 22:30: EIA crude oil inventory report for the week ending October 23. 2. October 29, 2:00: Federal Reserve FOMC interest rate decision. 3. October 29, 2:30: Fed Chair Powell monetary policy press conference. 4. October 29: New adjustment window for domestic refined oil prices opens.