Kalshi Traders Price Low Odds for U.S. Crypto Clarity Bill to Pass in 2026

Prediction market traders are assigning slim chances that a major U.S. cryptocurrency market bill will make it into law before year-end, even as it advances to the Senate. CoinDesk reported that Kalshi pricing puts the probability of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act becoming law by the end of this year at under 25%. Kalshi also shows the odds of the measure being fully implemented by April 2027 at below 50%. The next key milestone is a Senate procedural vote scheduled for September 15. The bill cleared the House in July 2025 with bipartisan support. It is designed to create a clearer regulatory framework for digital commodities and spell out how oversight should be divided between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). While both agencies have issued crypto-related guidance, the legal boundary between their authorities has never been firmly defined. The SEC regulates securities markets, while the CFTC oversees derivatives, including futures and prediction markets. The White House has been pressing lawmakers to move the legislation. Last week, U.S. President Trump publicly urged Congress to pass a "fair version" of the Clear Act, a push markets had viewed as supportive. CNBC reported Bitcoin gained more than 20% over the past week, with part of the move tied to expectations that the bill could advance. Kalshi traders remain unconvinced. Even with the bill's progress, pricing still implies it is unlikely to be enacted this year. Regulators are also signaling they may act without Congress. SEC Chair Paul Atkins and CFTC Chair Michael Selig attended a meeting last week between Trump and cryptocurrency industry executives. Speaking later at the inaugural meeting of the CFTC's Innovation Advisory Committee, Selig said that if the Clear Act continues to stall in the Senate, the CFTC could consider using existing statutory authority to begin building a regulatory framework for crypto markets. He added that if Democratic obstruction keeps the bill stuck, the agency may move ahead with regulatory steps rather than wait entirely for new legislation. Key probabilities and dates from Kalshi: - Chance of becoming law by end of year: under 25% - Chance of full implementation by April 2027: below 50% - Senate procedural vote: September 15