Gold Eases From Three-Month High With Focus on PCE Data and Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut

Gold prices eased on Tuesday after briefly climbing to their highest level in more than three months, leaving markets to judge whether the move is a pause in the rally or the start of a deeper pullback. Traders are watching U.S. PCE inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech for fresh direction. Spot gold slipped 0.2% to $4,640.39 an ounce by 0334 GMT on Aug. 25, Reuters reported. U.S. gold futures were little changed near $4,696, keeping futures at a premium to spot. The latest upswing has been underpinned by a softer U.S. dollar and declining long-term Treasury yields after the U.S. Treasury said it plans to expand buybacks of longer-dated securities. The dollar index hovered around 98.96 in Asian trade as investors weighed the impact of Treasury market intervention alongside ongoing fiscal-policy concerns. Inflation data and Warsh's policy signal are in focus because sticky inflation could keep rate expectations elevated—typically a headwind for non-yielding gold. Cooler inflation or a less hawkish message could revive buying and lift prices back toward recent highs. From a short-term technical perspective, the 15-minute XAU/USD chart shows a sharp retreat after testing the $4,680–$4,700 area, with price around $4,630. Forex Expertise flags $4,615–$4,623 as the first key intraday support zone. If that area holds, buyers may target $4,658–$4,668, with a potential retest of the $4,680–$4,692 swing-high liquidity region. Above that, $4,700–$4,712 is the main near-term breakout band. Sustained 15-minute acceptance above $4,712 would negate bearish setups and strengthen the case for further gains. On the downside, a break below $4,615 would shift attention to $4,588–$4,597, followed by a stronger demand area at $4,558–$4,568. A decisive move under $4,558 would suggest the pullback is evolving into a deeper correction rather than a routine retest. Longer term, the weekly COMEX gold futures chart remains constructive. Futures were near $4,693, well above the 50-week exponential moving average around $4,278. Weekly RSI was near 59.7, back above the neutral 50 mark without signaling overbought conditions, indicating improving momentum after the earlier correction from above $5,000. TD Securities told Reuters that gold remains supported, but said it may be premature for prices to reach its $5,350 target, especially if inflation keeps interest rates elevated. Near-term, traders are watching $4,615 as the first downside test and $4,700–$4,712 as the key bullish trigger. Holding support while reclaiming resistance would favor another leg higher, while a break below $4,558 would point to a more substantial correction.