Bitcoin's Link to U.S. Equities Loosens as Inflation Surprise Lifts Price Response

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode said Bitcoin's prolonged base-building phase is starting to firm up, though a durable rebound still hinges on renewed spot-market demand. Glassnode noted that Bitcoin responded more sharply than major U.S. stock indices to last week's better-than-expected U.S. inflation data, marking one of the strongest reactions to favorable macro news in recent weeks. The firm added that Bitcoin's correlation with equities has weakened, while its inverse relationship with the U.S. dollar has strengthened. In Glassnode's view, that shift suggests global liquidity conditions are increasingly driving Bitcoin's price action, rather than simple risk-on/risk-off sentiment. The report also said capitulation by long-term holders—a key source of selling pressure for much of the year—has begun to ease from peak levels. Profit-taking has largely faded, and supply from the June lows has been absorbed by broad-based buying. Glassnode added that the "ready-to-sell" supply that previously capped rallies is thinning, opening the door for Bitcoin to retest overhead resistance zones. Glassnode identified the most significant resistance as the Short-Term Investor Cost Base near $69,000, representing the average breakeven level for recent entrants. The firm said a pronounced market reaction could occur if Bitcoin trades into the $69,000 area. For a recovery to be confirmed, Bitcoin would need to break above that level on the back of spot buying and hold there. The analysis said derivatives traders have started to reduce short exposure, but the move has not yet been matched by spot inflows. Glassnode argued the missing element for a sustained recovery is strong, persistent spot demand. Despite the improving signals, Glassnode cautioned that a bullish reversal has not been definitively confirmed. Risks highlighted include ongoing outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, derivatives position unwinds failing to translate into spot purchases, and volatility remaining subdued. According to the firm, a clear positive turning point would be spot buying pushing Bitcoin above the short-term investor cost basis and keeping it there. Glassnode warned that renewed acceleration in loss-driven selling by long-term holders, or a rejection at the $69,000 resistance followed by a pullback toward current levels, could push Bitcoin back into its existing sideways range. Summing up, the firm said a base is largely in place, but the momentum needed to extend an uptrend has yet to materialize: "The base has formed, but the continuation of the movement has not yet arrived." *This is not investment advice.