CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Pullback Looks Like a Mid-Cycle Valuation Reset, Not the End of the Bull Run

Bitcoin's latest pullback is more consistent with a reset in market valuations than a conclusion to the current bull cycle, according to CryptoQuant contributor CryptoZeno. In two separate notes, CryptoZeno reviewed on-chain signals from the long-term holder (LTH) MVRV and the Adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL). Both metrics point to seasoned investors staying the course despite recent price weakness. Bitcoin was trading around $64,500, up 4% in the past 24 hours, though still 49% below its all-time high. LTH MVRV suggests a reset rather than distribution CryptoZeno said wallets holding BTC for six months to 10 years show patterns more aligned with a market reset than a rush to sell. He noted the adjusted MVRV remains well below the levels seen at major cycle peaks in 2017 and 2021, where long-term investors typically took heavy profits. On-chain data instead indicates patience among these holders. The analysis also found the average acquisition price for long-term holders continues to rise even as Bitcoin's spot price has fallen. CryptoZeno interprets this as evidence the downturn is being driven primarily by weaker prices, not broad long-term holder selling. He added that this kind of correction tends to flush out short-term speculation while keeping long-term supply relatively tight, contributing to a healthier market structure. Adjusted NUPL moves toward neutral In a separate review of Adjusted NUPL, which tracks unrealized gains and losses across the network, CryptoZeno observed the indicator drifting closer to neutral after the correction. That shift implies a meaningful reduction in unrealized profits. Historically, similar moves have been associated with market resets rather than the start of an extended bear market. Long-term holders still in profit; short-term holders near breakeven CryptoZeno highlighted a divergence between long-term and short-term cohorts. Long-term holders remain in significant unrealized profit, even after those gains have cooled from prior highs, signaling continued conviction and little evidence of panic selling. Short-term holders are closer to breakeven following recent paper losses. With thinner profit buffers, they may be more reactive to shifts in sentiment until prices stabilize and recover. Overall, CryptoZeno said the MVRV and NUPL readings align with a broad profit reset rather than full capitulation. If long-term holders keep holding and new buyers absorb the limited supply, he argued the current drawdown could represent a mid-cycle reset instead of the end of the bull market. Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Views expressed may reflect the author's personal opinions and do not represent The Crypto Basic's position. Readers should conduct their own research before making investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.