FedWatch: September hold odds climb to 58.6%
AI Market Summary
CME FedWatch pricing indicates a higher probability the Fed holds rates steady in September (58.6%), with reduced odds of a near-term hike and only modest probabilities of larger tightening by October. A less hawkish path typically eases financial-conditions pressure, affecting USD rates expectations and broad cross-asset positioning. The shift is most directly reflected in the US dollar index as rate-differential assumptions adjust.
Impact level
● High
Affected assets
NCSIDXY2USD/USDT+0.18%
AI Insight · NCSIDXY2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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ChainThink said CME's FedWatch tool showed shifting rate expectations as of Aug. 25. Markets now price a 58.6% chance the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged at the September meeting, versus a 41.4% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike.
For October, FedWatch indicates a 43.0% chance of no change, a 46.0% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase, and an 11.0% chance of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike. The figures reflect market-implied pricing for the next two FOMC decisions.
