CME FedWatch: Markets price in 58.4% odds of a 25-bp Fed hike by September
AI Market Summary
CME FedWatch probabilities imply markets are leaning toward at least one additional 25 bp hike by September, with non-trivial odds of a second hike by October. A higher-for-longer policy path typically supports front-end yields and the USD while tightening financial conditions. In the near term, this raises discount rates and can pressure duration-sensitive risk assets and higher-beta crypto.
Impact level
● High
Affected assets
NCSIDXY2USD/USDT-0.17%
AI Insight · NCSIDXY2USD/USDTAI Insight
▼ Bearish
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ChainCatcher reports, citing CNBC, that CME's FedWatch tool shows markets assigning a 41.6% probability the Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged by September, versus a 58.4% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase. Looking to October, the probability of no change is 30.5%, while odds of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike stand at 53.9% and a cumulative 50-basis-point hike at 15.5%.
