FedWatch: September hike odds climb to 60.3% after nonfarm payrolls report
AI Market Summary
CME FedWatch now implies a higher likelihood of a September hike (60.3% for +25bp) and non-trivial odds of further tightening by October (16.7% for +50bp cumulative). This shifts the front end of the rates curve higher, tightens financial conditions, and typically supports the USD while pressuring duration-sensitive risk assets. Near-term pricing will be highly reactive to incoming labor and inflation data.
Impact level
● High
Affected assets
NCSIDXY2USD/USDT+0.14%
AI Insight · NCSIDXY2USD/USDTAI Insight
▼ Bearish
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CME's FedWatch data show markets now assign a 39.7% probability that the Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged through September, versus a 60.3% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase. Looking through October, the probability of no change falls to 28.7%, while a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is priced at 54.6% and a cumulative 50-basis-point hike at 16.7%. (CoinDesk)
