Bitcoin Jumps to $77K on ETF Inflows, Treasury Liquidity Move; Markets Eye Key U.S. Data

Bitcoin extended a powerful weekly run into Monday trading near $77,364, capping one of its strongest stretches of 2024. The token is up about 22.1% over the past seven days, rebounding from roughly $64,000 and briefly approaching $80,000. The move has been fueled by improved liquidity conditions, heavy inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and forced liquidations of bearish positions, which added momentum to spot demand. What's behind the rally U.S. Treasury liquidity operation: The Treasury said it will expand liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated debt, doubling the maximum operation size from $2 billion to at least $4 billion starting Sept. 9. The program is not quantitative easing or formal yield-curve control, but it helped pressure some long-term yields lower and supported demand for risk assets. ETF flows and derivatives: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logged sizable net inflows, about $517 million on Aug. 19 and $606 million on Aug. 20. Short liquidations in derivatives markets added to the upside, reinforcing the breakout. Macro catalysts and risks ahead Traders are focused on U.S. economic releases and event risk that could shift Treasury yields, the dollar and broader risk appetite: • Tuesday: August consumer confidence; July new home sales. • Wednesday (8:30 a.m. ET): July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, headline and core (excluding food and energy). Core PCE was 3.3% year over year in June; the Cleveland Fed's nowcast puts July core PCE at about 3.29% y/y and 0.25% m/m (model-based estimate). • Wednesday: The BEA will publish its second estimate of Q2 GDP. The advance estimate showed 1.5% annualized growth versus 2.1% in Q1, with real final sales to private domestic purchasers up 3.9%. • Wednesday: Nvidia ($NVDA) reports quarterly results, a key tech earnings release that can swing risk sentiment. • Thursday–Friday: Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium (Aug. 27–29). Fed official Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak Friday at 10:00 a.m. ET. • Friday: August Michigan consumer sentiment. How markets could transmit to crypto A hotter-than-expected PCE print or stronger GDP revisions would reinforce "higher for longer" rate expectations, potentially lifting yields and the dollar—a typical headwind for Bitcoin. Cooler inflation data or balanced-to-dovish messaging around Jackson Hole could ease yield pressure and reopen a test of $80,000. After a roughly 22% weekly gain, positioning suggests the market may be more sensitive to downside surprises as traders take profits. Fed backdrop In July, the Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.50%–3.75% in a 9–3 vote. Three members favored a hike, and officials signaled rates could still need to rise if inflation remains persistent. Economists remain divided: a Reuters poll shows most expect rates to stay unchanged through 2026, while a minority anticipate additional hikes. Jackson Hole commentary could sharpen that debate and move markets. Levels to watch • Resistance: the recent peak just under $80,000. • Support: $75,000 as the first pullback level, then the prior breakout area around $70,000–$72,000. Bottom line Bitcoin's surge reflects a combination of structural support from Treasury liquidity operations and ETF demand, alongside heightened sensitivity to U.S. macro signals. This week's inflation data, the Q2 GDP revision and Jackson Hole remarks are the main catalysts that could sustain a push back toward $80K or trigger a pullback as markets reprice rate and yield expectations.