Bitcoin long-term holders have been net sellers for seven weeks, but the rally continues
AI Market Summary
Bitcoin long-term holders have reduced holdings for seven straight weeks, yet price has continued rising, implying demand is absorbing incremental supply. LTH position change turned negative in mid-August and recent outflows accelerated, while LTH SOPR above 1 indicates profit-taking into strength. Near term, the key risk is a shift from orderly distribution to heavier selling coinciding with stalled price momentum.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
BTC/USDT+0.58%
AI Insight · BTC/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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BlockBeats reported on Oct. 6 that analyst Axel Adler Jr. said Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) have been cutting positions for seven straight weeks, even as BTC prices keep climbing—suggesting market demand is still absorbing the added supply.
On-chain data show the long-term holder position change indicator flipped negative on Aug. 17 and has stayed below zero since. By Sept. 28, the indicator fell to 73,400 BTC, versus 1,100 BTC a week earlier. Even so, the current drawdown remains well below the November 2025 peak of 1.07 million BTC.
Adler also noted that LTH SOPR has held above 1 for two consecutive weeks, reaching 1.18 on Sept. 28. That implies coins recently moved by long-term holders were sold at an average gain of about 18% over cost basis.
Adler Jr. said the current pattern points to profit-taking into strength. He added that the key risk would be an acceleration in selling pressure at a time when Bitcoin's price stops advancing or turns lower.
