Trump Weighs Broader Strikes on Iran as Hormuz Crisis Deepens
AI Market Summary
Reports that Trump is weighing expanded strikes on strategic Iranian targets, alongside renewed maritime measures and additional U.S. sanctions, raise tail-risk of wider conflict and disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's threats to halt regional oil and gas exports and continued missile/drone activity increase supply and shipping risk premia. Near-term, markets may reprice energy volatility higher, tighten financial conditions, and weigh risk assets on geopolitical uncertainty.
Impact level
● High
Affected assets
NCCO1OILWTI2USD/USDT-1.00%
AI Insight · NCCO1OILWTI2USD/USDTAI Insight
▼ Bearish
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President Donald Trump convened a high-level national security meeting in the White House Situation Room on Tuesday to review options for a significantly expanded military campaign against Iran, Axios reported.
People familiar with the discussion said the meeting went beyond the ongoing U.S. airstrikes around the Strait of Hormuz and included new plans to hit strategic sites inside Iran—operations described as larger in scale and more destructive. The administration's aim, according to the report, is to increase pressure on Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and return to nuclear talks, a strategy that carries elevated escalation risks. The White House declined to comment.
Attendees included Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, White House envoy Steve Witkoff and other senior officials.
The meeting came as U.S. forces entered a fourth consecutive day of strikes in the Strait of Hormuz area and along Iran's southern coast. U.S. officials said the primary targets included air defense and radar systems, anti-ship missile positions and drone launch sites, intended to substantially degrade Iran's capacity to attack commercial shipping. U.S. officials also said Iran has been retaliating with repeated missile and drone launches at U.S. bases in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain.
At 2:00 p.m. local time on Tuesday (early Wednesday morning Beijing time), a maritime blockade targeting Iranian ports was reinstated. Gen. Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, said Iran has "deliberately attacked seven commercial vessels in the region" over the past week, leaving "nearly a dozen" civilian crew members killed, missing or injured. U.S. officials added that, despite rising tensions, U.S. forces coordinated the transit of 300 vessels through the Strait of Hormuz over the past week.
According to insiders, a key focus of the Situation Room session was planning "devastating" strikes on Iranian strategic targets not directly tied to Hormuz, signaling that the target set under consideration has widened from the strait area to a broader range inside Iran.
Ahead of the meeting, Trump told Fox News the operation would expand. He said U.S. forces would strike Iran "heavily" over the next three days and suggested the campaign could intensify further afterward. "Next week, it will become very bad for them, because next week it's the power plants' turn," Trump said, adding: "Next week, it's the bridges' turn. We will destroy all of their power plants. We will destroy all of their bridges unless they return to the negotiating table."
Trump also said the U.S. is monitoring activity at Iran's "Pickaxe Mountain," which he described as a deep underground facility that the United States and Israel believe is linked to Iran's nuclear program and could be resistant to airstrikes. He said U.S. bunker-busting bombs "can go very deep" and added that "no one knows" whether "Hwaseong" can withstand such weapons. "By the way, no one knows what they're actually doing at Hwaseong," Trump said. "We have cameras pointed there. There's very little activity there. But even the slightest bit of activity, we will strike it—and strike it hard."
Trump said U.S. negotiators spoke with Iranian officials on Tuesday and urged a return to talks. He said he warned: "You better reach an agreement, or you will have nothing left."
Also on Tuesday, the United States announced new sanctions aimed at disrupting Iran's shipping network, which Washington says has helped evade earlier restrictions on oil sales and other activities. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the department is "shutting down the financial infrastructure that enables this regime to continue threatening U.S. national security and global shipping." The U.S. Treasury said it has now sanctioned more than 200 individuals, entities and vessels operating under Shamkhani.
In a statement carried by Xinhua on the 15th, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that as long as the United States continues its attacks on Iran, not a single drop of oil or natural gas will be exported from the region.
Reuters reported that Jordan's air defenses intercepted and shot down three ballistic missiles that entered its airspace from Iranian territory early Wednesday. Iran had previously said its target was the Al Azraq Air Base in Jordan. The IRGC also said its strikes targeted command and control, logistics, fuel and military equipment facilities of the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, describing them as a response to U.S. strikes and to U.S. control of the Strait of Hormuz. It also said it "set fire to and destroyed" a U.S. military logistics and support center in Mina Abdullah, Kuwait.
Analysts warned that escalation may not produce the political or strategic outcomes the White House is seeking. Republican strategist Ron Bonjean said Trump "seems to have reached a dead end" on Iran and that the conflict "may take months or even years to resolve." Becca Wasser, a defense strategy expert at the Center for a New American Security, said it is difficult to see what continued airstrikes would accomplish for the United States, even as it appears to be the option Trump is increasingly leaning toward. She noted that using escalation to force de-escalation has not worked well historically.
The Financial Times reported that Democrats are expected to cite the move to rescind the strait toll as evidence that Trump's pressure campaign has fallen short. Colorado Democratic Rep. Jason Crow wrote on X on Tuesday: "No strategy. He's making it up as he goes. Meanwhile, you're paying more for gas, groceries, and goods."
U.S. officials and outside observers also flagged military risks: if Iran continues striking U.S. allies, troops and assets while betting Trump will eventually back down, additional U.S. attacks could trigger a wider confrontation. There is also concern that Washington may be pushed to narrow its stated objectives and settle for the limited goal of reopening shipping lanes in the Gulf.
Politically, the renewed fighting has reassured some hawkish Republicans on Capitol Hill, but many Republicans—particularly those in swing districts facing November's midterm elections—are increasingly uneasy that Trump has not delivered on his pledge to end the war.