Oil and gasoline prices rebounded and surged after reports that a cargo vessel was hit by an unknown projectile off the coast of Oman in the Strait of Hormuz. The move followed an earlier slide to a 4month low as flows resumed through the reopened strait, easing supply worries. WTI rose 2.25% and RBOB gasoline gained 3.97%, as the incident was treated as a sudden risk of geopolitical supply disruption. The International Energy Agency has cut its global oil demand outlook, but the short-term shock outweighed signs of easing fundamentals.

U.S. gasoline prices have declined for six consecutive weeks, but the national average is still projected at about $3.75 per gallon on July 4, the second-highest on record. Brent crude briefly slid toward $72 per barrel before rebounding to around $75 on Thursday as Middle Eastern supply returned, including restarts at Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura terminal and rising Iraqi exports. Retail pump prices have not fallen as quickly as crude, reflecting both lingering shipping uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and the typical lag between wholesale and retail markets.

Apple raised prices for iPads and MacBooks on Thursday, after CEO Tim Cook said higher pricing was unavoidable. The increases follow a surge in memory-chip demand tied to the AI boom and the buildout of large data centers. iPhone pricing has so far avoided the latest round of increases.

Japan’s Meteorological Agency has confirmed an El Niño pattern across the equatorial Pacific, while NOAA puts the odds of a record “Super El Niño” this year at 67%. In India, cumulative monsoon rainfall was 42% below normal as of June 24, and officials warned the season could be the weakest in 11 years. In Brazil’s 2026/27 season, sugar output has been revised lower and mills have shifted cane toward ethanol, with sugar’s share falling to 41.42% and ethanol’s rising to 58.38%. Several forecasters including ISO and StoneX have also cut their 2026/27 global balance outlook from surplus to deficit, even as near-term prices remain choppy under a stronger U.S. dollar.

ICE New York and London cocoa futures surged 5.51% and 4.63% on Thursday, hitting 5.5-month highs. Heavy rain in Ivory Coast and Ghana has disrupted access to farms and ports and raised the risk of brown rot disease, tightening near-term supply expectations. Separate weather signals are also supporting prices after Japan’s Meteorological Agency confirmed an El Niño pattern and NOAA put the odds of a “Super El Niño” this year at 67%.

Persistent heavy rain in Brazil’s south-central region is expected to bring more than 50 millimeters this week, delaying harvesting and potentially hurting bean quality. ICE arabica coffee inventories have dropped to a 2.25-year low of 385,191 bags, while ICE robusta stocks, despite a recent rebound, remain near two-year lows. With NOAA putting the odds of a “Super El Niño” at 67%, the market is focused on the risk of abnormal rainfall around next year’s flowering period and potential fallout for the 2026/27 crop.

Apple said it is raising prices for several hardware lines, including iPad and Mac, with increases ranging from $100 to $200, citing soaring memory costs driven by AI data centers. The company said the speed and scale of component price increases were unprecedented and that it could no longer absorb the costs. Apple shares fell 6.12% on the day, erasing about $265 billion in market value. Microsoft’s Xbox also announced price increases, underscoring broader pressure across the memory supply chain.

Chile’s ambassador to India has called for a deeper strategic partnership to jointly develop critical minerals such as copper and lithium and integrate related value chains to support India’s energy security and decarbonisation goals. The proposal highlights Chile’s position in copper—22% of global production and 21% of reserves—alongside investment incentives including R&D tax credits and a new business visa system. The initiative is framed as a policy-level opportunity linked to a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA) currently under negotiation and does not set out specific projects or orders.