Iran conflict fuels $5.34B prediction market surge as CFTC advances rules and DEATH BETS ban proposal

During the week ending Monday, March 9, notional trading volume on Polymarket and Kalshi climbed to $2.49 billion and $2.85 billion, respectively, amid heightened US-Iran tensions. At the same time, US regulators advanced CFTC rulemaking for event contracts and Senator Adam Schiff proposed the DEATH BETS Act to ban federally regulated markets from listing contracts tied to war, terrorism and individual deaths.