India may face a 2 million tonne sugar shortfall; imports could be decisive, says Dalmia Bharat Sugar executive Kapil Nema
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India sugar output estimates were cut to ~37.5–38.5m tonnes, with low stocks implying a ~2m-tonne gap. With rains risking further losses across key states, policy focus shifts to whether and when imports are allowed, a potentially price-supportive catalyst. Globally, reduced Brazilian crushing underpins tighter supply, while India's ethanol diversion remains paused until crop visibility improves.
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An executive at Dalmia Bharat Sugar said India's sugar output estimate has been revised down to 37.5–38.5 million tonnes, while inventories are seen at just 5.0–5.5 million tonnes, implying a supply gap of about 2 million tonnes.
Recent rainfall could weigh on production prospects in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka. The government is closely tracking stock levels, and the timing of any imports is shaping up as a key policy call.
Globally, reduced crushing in Brazil is lending support to sugar prices. The executive added that India is unlikely to divert more sugar to ethanol until the crop outlook becomes clearer.
