Commodity

India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer, is expected to import sugar for a second consecutive year in 2025-26 after domestic prices surged to a record high on lower output. Prolonged rainfall shortages in Maharashtra and Karnataka, along with state decisions to prioritise reservoir water for drinking over irrigation, are set to sharply reduce sugar content in cane slated for crushing from October. The lower sugar recovery is expected to further tighten supplies and weigh on production.

The White House is preparing a 90-day ban on U.S. diesel exports, a move that could hit Europe’s fuel supply because more than half of its diesel imports come from the United States. Germany and the United Kingdom said supplies are secure in the near term, while not dismissing potential impacts. The proposed restriction could lift diesel and crude prices.

U.S. natural gas futures rose 2.6% on Wednesday, with the front-month contract settling at $3.041 per million British thermal units, an 11-week high. Forecasts for cooler temperatures lifted expectations for heating demand. The market also reflected a drop in daily output this month and higher flows to liquefied natural gas export plants. The contract closed above the $3 per mmBtu level for the first time since early July.

Disruptions to Black Sea shipping have pushed up global wheat prices, prompting Bangladeshi importers to book more than 200,000 tonnes of Indian wheat since India eased export restrictions. Bangladesh imports more than 7 million tonnes of wheat each year, with India previously supplying nearly 70% of its purchases and the Black Sea region accounting for about 40%. Sri Lankan importers have also bought about 60,000 tonnes of Indian wheat. Refined wheat flour prices in Dhaka have risen 17% over the past month.

The Russia-Ukraine war has disrupted Black Sea wheat exports, forcing major buyers including Egypt, Indonesia and Vietnam to seek alternative supplies from Australia, Argentina and France. Russia and Ukraine together account for more than a quarter of global wheat trade, and their September export volumes are expected to drop sharply from a year earlier. Tighter supply has lifted Chicago wheat futures to a three-and-a-half-year high, with prices from alternative origins also rising. The shift is adding to global food inflation risks.

Swiss experts say the chocolate industry has moved past the most severe phase of the cocoa crisis. Cocoa prices in 2024 at times topped £10,000 per tonne and, while still about twice the historical average, have fallen 60% from their peak. Higher prices weighed on demand, with Swiss chocolate sales down 7.9% and exports down 9.3% in 2025 even as turnover rose 11.8% on price increases. In the third quarter of the 2025/26 financial year, sales volumes rose 5.7% year on year, the first increase in two years, and Lindt & Sprüngli expects growth to return in 2027.

Investor Michael Burry has disclosed a long position tied to copper producer Ero Copper. Expectations for further gains in the metal have been bolstered by supply constraints, falling inventories and limited new mine discoveries. Copper on the London Metal Exchange has risen 18% so far this year, and global mined copper output could decline this year for the first time since 2017, according to Axis Securities.

International oil prices fell for a sixth straight session, with Brent down about 1% to $98.30 and WTI down 1.4% to $89.49. U.S.-Iran talks held at the United Nations, alongside the restart of a previously disrupted Saudi pipeline, eased concerns over potential Middle East supply disruptions. Saudi Aramco plans to restore pipeline flows to roughly 4 million barrels per day (bpd) within a few weeks.

India’s domestic gold price is trading below import parity, with the discount widening sharply from $34/oz in July to $78/oz by midSeptember. Ample supply from old-gold exchange and unofficial channels has kept local prices under pressure. Although Indian gold ETFs added 1.6 tonnes in August—up 67% monthonmonth—imports fell 45% m/m, indicating local supply is sufficient to meet demand.

Global oil stockpiles are being drawn down at a record pace, with the International Energy Agency estimating inventories have fallen by 507 million barrels since the conflict began. Disruptions have escalated as Ukrainian attacks have severely damaged Russia’s refining sector, which typically accounts for 4 per cent of global capacity, while China is preparing to lift crude imports. In Australia, average petrol prices have jumped nearly 40 per cent since July to above $2.30 a litre and diesel has risen nearly 60 per cent to $2.88, heightening concern about further increases.