Commodity

New York raw sugar futures retreated sharply from a 17-month high, falling as much as 4.8% intraday for the biggest drop since May. Prices had surged more than 21% last month after India allowed up to 1 million tons of duty-free raw sugar imports, stoking concerns about tight supply. But softer domestic prices in India have damped expectations for overseas purchases, with Rabobank estimating actual imports at 500,000 to 600,000 tons.

BMI raised its 2026 average coffee price forecast to 307 cents a pound, citing a strengthening El Nino and historically thin inventories. It expects global coffee production to rise 6% to 188.9 million bags in 2026-27, led by Brazil, where output is seen up 14.1% to 71.9 million bags, while Vietnam is forecast to edge up to 31.9 million bags. BMI sees Brazil’s 2027-28 crop slipping 5.1% to 68 million bags, narrowing the global surplus from 14.4 million bags to 9.2 million bags and keeping prices supported.

The Dutch central bank has shifted about $10.7bn worth of gold from New York to London by selling roughly 59 tonnes in New York and buying in London, and also moved a little more than $1bn from Ottawa. By the end of 2025, the Netherlands held 612.4 tonnes of gold valued at about 72.2 billion euros. The moves were part of a broader rebalancing of storage locations and risk diversification, according to De Nederlandsche Bank.

Negotiations over a new power contract for Tasmania’s Bell Bay aluminium smelter remain deadlocked, with Hydro Tasmania and Rio Tinto about $60 million a year apart, or $600 million over 10 years. The federal government’s $2 billion green aluminium credit scheme is not due to begin for two years, and the state government’s push for support has so far failed. Separately, an EY report found a related company loaned $191 million from the manganese smelter business to other GFG Alliance entities, deepening concerns about financial fragility. Residents and local groups fear that if the aluminium smelter closes, George Town’s economy could be severely hit.

Gas from Australia’s Beetaloo Basin has begun flowing to Darwin, and Jemena has outlined a plan to build a 400-kilometre pipeline connection to the Northern Gas Pipeline (NGP), the only route linking Northern Territory gas to the east coast. APA Group has also begun environmental assessment for a proposed 1,500-kilometre pipeline that would run directly from Beetaloo to southwest Queensland. Both projects would require environmental approvals from the Queensland, Northern Territory and federal governments.

The Dutch central bank said Wednesday it has relocated 86 metric tons of gold from North America as it prepares for potential crises amid global political unrest. Between March and August, it moved part of the gold held in New York and Ottawa to London, while more than 27 metric tons were physically transferred to a heavily guarded vault at a military base near Zeist in the Netherlands. After the move, the shares of Dutch gold held in New York and Ottawa both fell to 18.5%. The central bank holds 612.4 metric tons of gold, valued at 72.2 billion euros at the end of 2025.

ICE New York and London cocoa futures extended their sharp declines on Wednesday, with both contracts falling more than 4.5% for a second straight session. Ivory Coast port arrivals in the current marketing year rose 19% year on year to 2.14 million tonnes, and output from June 2025 to June 2026 climbed 30% to 2.06 million tonnes. Nigeria’s July cocoa bean exports increased 18% from a year earlier to 16,052 tonnes. The stronger supply backdrop has added pressure on prices.

Ryanair said a spike in jet fuel prices driven by the Iran war has led it to cut its winter passenger target for this year to 214m from 216m. The airline said the 20% of its fuel that was not hedged more than doubled to $150 per barrel, pushing operating costs up 11% to €3.8bn in the three months to June. Pretax profit fell 36% to €593m. Ryanair warned that if oil prices stay elevated, weaker European airlines could be forced to shrink or go out of business.

LME three-month zinc rose to $3,990 per metric ton on Monday, a four-year high, while the cash premium, though down from above $230 last week, remained elevated at $139, pointing to severe tightness. After global zinc mine output briefly rebounded by 4.8% last year, production fell 2.6% year on year in the first half of 2026, reversing earlier expectations of a modest recovery. New International Lead and Zinc Study Group data show global mine output dropped a cumulative 8.6% between 2015 and 2025, reinforcing longer-term supply-side shrinkage risks.

Retail and wholesale sugar prices in India continued to fall as weak demand left mills with few buyers for offers above ₹4,400 a quintal. Under new fortnightly quota rules, mills must sell 40 per cent of the Food Ministry’s allocation in the first week, adding pressure to cut prices. The Centre has also allowed duty-free imports of 1 million tonnes of raw sugar until October 31, weighing further on the domestic market. Global sugar prices on ICE New York rose to 18.26 cents a pound.