Commodity

The Democratic Republic of Congo unexpectedly imposed an export ban on copper and cobalt concentrates, jolting global markets and pushing London Metal Exchange copper to a new high. The move comes even as Congo’s refined copper output remains robust, but its smelting capacity is limited and new smelters are still under construction. Similar bans in the past were blunted by waivers, yet the latest restriction intensifies competition in an already tight concentrates market as copper inventories keep falling. Goldman Sachs said the ban is unlikely to materially change the global balance, but markets remain highly sensitive to supply disruptions.

India’s gold ETF net inflows fell 55% month on month in July, while silver ETF inflows dropped 70%, according to data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India. Gold ETF assets under management rose to Rs 1.73 lakh crore, while silver ETF AUM slipped to Rs 77,676 crore. Gold ETFs posted an average return of 1.37% for the month, while silver ETFs recorded an average loss of 2.48%.

Air Canada cut its 2024 adjusted EBITDA outlook to $2.9 billion to $3.2 billion from its prior $3.35 billion to $3.75 billion range, citing a sharp rise in jet fuel costs. Outgoing CEO Michael Rousseau said second-quarter jet fuel expenses were 49 per cent higher than a year earlier. The carrier also said investors including funds managed by Blackstone Inc. will pay $2.5 billion for a 25% stake in its Aeroplan loyalty business, with proceeds to repay an upcoming $1.2 billion bond maturity.

Westport released its financial results for the second quarter of 2026, highlighting sharp growth at Cespira, its joint venture with Volvo Group, on strong demand for LNG HPDI fuel systems. Cespira’s revenue rose 125% year over year and gross profit improved 298%, while Westport’s total revenue fell to $2.7 million from $12.5 million a year earlier. The company also said it completed a private placement in June for initial gross proceeds of about US$10 million, with the potential for another US$10 million over the next two years through warrant exercises.

ICE New York September cocoa fell 278 points (-4.78%) on Tuesday, while ICE London July cocoa dropped 179 points (-4.21%), with both contracts hitting 1-week lows. Ghana’s cocoa board said 750,000 MT had been harvested for the season ending at the end of August, up 25.6% from 597,000 MT a year earlier. Ivory Coast port data showed cocoa arrivals since October 1 have reached 2.11 MMT, up 20% year on year. Early assessments of next season point to poor pod development, with output for the season starting in September estimated at 1.8 MMT, down 18% from about 2.2 MMT expected for the current season.

Sugar prices extended a weeklong rally as concerns over global supply tightened sentiment. In Brazil’s Center-South, June sugar output fell 26.3% y/y to 3.903 MMT, while India’s weather office cut its monsoon rainfall forecast to 90% of the long-term average and reported rainfall was 12% below normal as of August 10. Global sugar consumption in 2026/27 is projected to rise to a record 179.991 MMT. Supply constraints alongside expectations for stronger demand have underpinned prices.

Gold prices edged higher near a two-month high as markets waited for upcoming US inflation readings. Spot gold was at $4,396.87 an ounce after touching $4,434.84, the highest since June 5, while US gold futures rose 0.8% to $4,456.10. Traders see about a 50% chance of a rate increase in September and a 79% chance in December.

Exceptional growing conditions across key West African regions are boosting cocoa supply and weighing on prices. Ghana has harvested 750,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, up 25.6% y/y, while Ivory Coast shipments this marketing year have reached 2.11 MMT, up 20%. Nigeria’s June cocoa exports rose 30% y/y to 18,922 MT. With expectations of ample supply, New York and London cocoa futures are both down more than 4%.

September arabica coffee futures rose 2.23% on Monday on concerns that an earthquake in Colombia could disrupt supplies, while September ICE robusta futures slipped 0.13%. Brazil’s coffee harvest remains behind last year’s pace, with Cooxupe members 67.3% complete as of July 31 versus 74.2% a year earlier, and the national harvest at 64% as of July 15 versus 77% last year and a five-year average of 70%. Rainfall in Minas Gerais totaled 5.8 mm in the week ended August 9, or 92% of the historical average. The USDA expects global arabica production to rise 12% year over year, while robusta production is seen falling 0.7%.

Wheat futures were volatile, with hard red winter wheat rising as much as 2.7% to $7.505 a bushel. Soft red winter wheat could see a larger move if prices hold above $7 a bushel. Ukraine warned that its agricultural exports for the 2026-27 season could be halved due to Russian attacks. A UN-tracked global food price index climbed to a three-year high in July.